Match Info

EUROPE: Europa League - League phase - Round 5

Date: 28 November 2024, Thursday

Location: Lotto Park (Anderlecht)

Referee: Krogh M. (Den)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 7, New World Sport App, SuperSport MaXimo 1
Argentina	ESPN 3
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria
Belgium	Play6, Play Sports 1, Play Sports 2, RTBF Tipik
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Moja TV
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	DAZN Canada
China	QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	ESPN 3
Croatia	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 4
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Mix, Sky Sport Top event, WOW
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 7
Hungary	RTL+
Iceland	Viaplay
India	Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 5
Indonesia	beIN Connect, Vidio
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	NOW TV, Sky Sport 253, Sky Sport Calcio
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 7
Mexico	FOX Sports 2
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	Sporza, Ziggo Sport 2
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay
Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	Polsat Sport Premium 3
Portugal	Canal 11, Sport TV5
Russia	Okko Sport
South-africa	Supersport Maximo 1 Champions
South-america	ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 2, Movistar Plus+ 1
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 12, Blue Sport 12, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Sky Sport Top Event
Tajikistan	Futbol TV
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 6
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 6
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Inter
Vietnam	ON Plus
International	Disney+, JioTV app


	Anderlecht		Porto

	1	X	2
	4	3.5	1.91
	3.8	3.6	1.93
	3.75	3.75	1.98	Watch
	3.91	3.7	1.96
	3.69	3.66	1.98	Watch
	3.9	3.4	1.95
	4.08	3.71	2
	3.75	3.75	1.98
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.86 ↑ (3.05)	3.63 ↑ (3.05)	1.96 ↓ (2.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Anderlecht
24.8%

Draw
26.4%

Porto
48.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

29.3%

41.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.3%

30.3%

43%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Anderlecht has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Porto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Porto's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Anderlecht than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Porto than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Porto, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.5%	19.4%	45.2%

Anderlecht - Porto Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Anderlecht will win (votes: 11 - 36.7%). Porto will win (votes: 13 - 43.3%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Porto: 25.6% – 61%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Coosemans C. (C) 25. Foket T. 13. Zanka 4. Simic J. 5. N'Diaye M. 23. Rits M. 29. Stroeykens M. 32. Dendoncker L. 27. Edozie S. 12. Dolberg K. 83. Degreef T.	99. Costa D. (C) 23. Joao Mario 24. Perez N. 4. Otavio 74. Moura F. 16. Nico 6. Eustaquio S. 22. Varela A. 11. Pepê 9. Samu 13. Galeno
Substitutes
7. Amuzu F. 19. Angulo N. 36. Dreyer A. 71. Engwanda N. 16. Kikkenborg M. (G) 73. Lapage A. 17. Leoni T. 63. Vanhoutte T. (G) 20. Vazquez L. 10. Verschaeren Y.	70. Borges G. 14. Claudio Ramos (G) 19. Danny Namaso 3. Djalo T. 52. Fernandes M. 20. Franco A. 86. Mora R. 21. Navarro F. 97. Pedro J. 15. Sousa V. 10. Vieira F. 12. Zaidu
Coaches
Clement R.	Bruno V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
24', 0 - 1, Galeno (Pen),
28', N'Diaye M. 🟨,
34', Joao Mario 🟨,
44', Nico 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Joao Mario ↓, Fernandes M. ↑,
52', 1 - 1, Degreef T. ⚽, Rits M. (A),
54', Moura F. 🟨,
60', Edozie S. ↓, Amuzu F. ↑,
64', Bruno V. 🟨,
72', Dolberg K. ↓, Vazquez L. ↑,
73', Degreef T. ↓, Dreyer A. ↑,
75', Pepê ↓, Borges G. ↑,
82', Eustaquio S. ↓, Vieira F. ↑,
83', 1 - 2, Vieira F. ⚽, Nico (A),
84', Foket T. ↓, Engwanda N. ↑,
84', Dendoncker L. ↓, Verschaeren Y. ↑,
86', 2 - 2, Amuzu F. ⚽, N'Diaye M. (A),

Preview

Anderlecht in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Porto is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Porto is a favorite.

There will not play in Anderlecht: Hazard T. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Porto: Grujic M. (Heel Injury) Gul D. (Thigh Injury) Ivan Jaime (Injury) Marcano I. (Knee Injury) Navarro F. (Muscle Injury) Otavio (Muscle Injury) Wendell (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Anderlecht: Ashimeru M. (Muscle Injury) Augustinsson L. (Injury) Vertonghen J. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Anderlecht
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
24.11.24	Anderlecht - Gent	6:0 ✺
10.11.24	Cercle Brugge - Anderlecht	0:5 ✺
UEFA Europa League
07.11.24	RFS - Anderlecht	1:1 ✺
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
03.11.24	Anderlecht - Kortrijk	4:0 ✺
Belgian Cup
31.10.24	Tubize - Anderlecht	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WWTWW
- FC Porto
Taça de Portugal
24.11.24	Moreirense - Porto	2:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
10.11.24	Benfica - Porto	4:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
07.11.24	Lazio - Porto	2:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
03.11.24	Porto - Estoril Praia	4:0 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
31.10.24	Porto - Moreirense	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LLLWW

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