Match Info

Championship - Round 26

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Somerset Park (Ayr)

Referee: Graham C. (Sco)


	Ayr United		Ross County

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.2	3.5	Watch
	1.95	3.45	3.6	Watch
	1.97	3.4	3.7
	1.97	3.51	3.68	Watch
	1.95	3.2	3.6
	1.93	3.22	3.7	Watch
	2	3.5	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↓ (1.99)	3.35 ↑ (3.2)	3.6 ↓ (3.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ayr United
47%

Draw
27.4%

Ross County
25.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.1%

28.6%

25.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.7%

27.6%

24.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ayr United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Ross County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ayr United than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ross County than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Ayr United - Ross County Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Thompson M. (G) 9. Oakley G. 8. Dempsey B. (C) 6. Bannigan S. 3. Dick L. 16. Summers B. 55. Finney G. 20. King L. 5. Holt K. 33. McMann S. 22. McKenzie M.	30. Carson T. (G) 9. Ikpeazu U. 7. Henderson J. 6. Randall C. 4. Wright A. 23. Docherty R. 26. White J. 5. Pitan L. 38. Lindsay J. 62. Mackie S. 31. Gallagher D. (C)
Substitutes
17. Bonnar J. 18. Hislop J. 2. McAllister N. 29. McRoberts L. 25. Mitchell K. 38. Russell L. (G) 21. Walker E. 4. Want S.	27. Duncan R. 21. Foster B. (G) 24. Kamara K. 3. O'Sullivan L. 11. Phillips K. 43. Reid J. 44. Scott J. 29. Thomson M. 28. Williamson J.
Coaches
Brown S.	Kettlewell S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
17', Dempsey B. 🟨,
38', Oakley G. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
51', Dempsey B. ↓, Bonnar J. ↑,
56', Finney G. ↓, McAllister N. ↑,
56', McKenzie M. ↓, Walker E. ↑,
64', Docherty R. 🟨,
73', Ikpeazu U. ↓, Phillips K. ↑,
73', Henderson J. ↓, Kamara K. ↑,
84', Pitan L. 🟨,
90+2', Kamara K. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ayr won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Recently, Ross County has had a series of away games.

Ayr will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Ayr won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 12:17. (average 1.1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Ayr won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:7. (average 1:1.2).

Outrights of Scottish Football Championship for now

Ayr: 1.52%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Ayr	10	3	3	4	10:11	-1	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ayr United
Scottish Challenge Cup
17.02.26	St. Johnstone - Ayr United	3:4 penalties ✺
Scottish Football Championship
31.01.26	Ayr United - Raith Rovers	2:1 ✺
24.01.26	Partick Thistle - Ayr United	2:1 ✺
Scottish Cup
17.01.26	Dundee United - Ayr United	2:0 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
13.01.26	Ayr United - Stranraer	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 WWLLW
- Ross County
Scottish Football Championship
14.02.26	Ross County - Queens Park	0:1 ✺
03.02.26	Queens Park - Ross County	0:1 ✺
31.01.26	Greenock Morton - Ross County	2:1 ✺
24.01.26	Airdrieonians - Ross County	0:1 ✺
Scottish Cup
17.01.26	Motherwell - Ross County	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Scottish Football Championship
08.11.25	Ross County - Ayr United	3:3
13.09.25	Ayr United - Ross County	1:1
Scottish Cup
18.01.20	Ayr United - Ross County	1:0
Scottish Football Championship
19.04.19	Ayr United - Ross County	1:3
26.02.19	Ross County - Ayr United	3:2
15.12.18	Ayr United - Ross County	3:3
20.10.18	Ross County - Ayr United	2:1

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