Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 23

Date: 7 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio de Espiñedo (Ourense)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Arenteiro		Real Avilés

	1	X	2
	2.25	3	3
	2.28	3	3.05
	2.31	3	3.25
	2.34	3.02	3.22	Watch
	2.25	2.75	3.1
	2.28	2.88	3.2
	2.2	2.9	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↑ (2.23)	2.94 ↓ (3.18)	3.15 ↓ (3.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arenteiro
40.1%

Draw
31%

Real Avilés
28.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.6%

29.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

28.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arenteiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Real Avilés has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arenteiro than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Avilés than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Arenteiro - Real Avilés Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Alvin (G) 3. Lohr L. 4. Falcon E. 15. Moreno D. 22. Sanchez J. 25. Bastida A. 6. Val B. 10. Chuca 7. Ferreiro D. 11. Cuellar J. 18. Mingo V.	1. Fernandez A. (G) 12. Grigore R. 5. Babin J. (C) 3. Diaz V. 20. Campabadal E. 8. Bautista K. 16. Gomez A. 14. Cayarga B. 17. Bari Q. 21. Uzkudun A. 9. Santamaria A.
Substitutes
19. Alpha M. 13. Garcia D. (G) 8. Gonzalez D. 23. Kandoussi B. 16. Lasure D. 21. Lopez A. 17. Molina A. 2. Moya P. 5. Perez G. 9. Ramon N. 14. Safrai	13. Almodovar N. (G) 15. Chukwuma E. 18. Gete A. 22. Isi Ros 24. Lopez A. 7. Luis Alcalde 26. Menendez O. 19. Poquet N. 23. Rivera C. 11. Rubio R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, Gomez A. ⚽,
12', 1 - 1, Ferreiro D. ⚽,
30', 2 - 1, Bastida A. ⚽,
32', Grigore R. 🟨,
35', Ferreiro D. 🟨,
40', 3 - 1, Mingo V. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 2)
46', Bari Q. ↓, Rubio R. ↑,
46', Cayarga B. ↓, Luis Alcalde ↑,
46', Santamaria A. ↓, Chukwuma E. ↑,
46', Campabadal E. ↓, Gete A. ↑,
48', 3 - 2, Uzkudun A. ⚽,
56', 4 - 2, Chuca ⚽,
67', 5 - 2, Mingo V. ⚽,
68', Chuca ↓, Lasure D. ↑,
68', Ferreiro D. ↓, Lopez A. ↑,
73', Moreno D. ↓, Kandoussi B. ↑,
73', Bastida A. ↓, Gonzalez D. ↑,
81', 5 - 3, Rubio R. ⚽,
83', Gomez A. ↓, Rivera C. ↑,
88', 6 - 3, Mingo V. (Penalty Awarded),
89', Mingo V. ↓, Moya P. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arenteiro won 1.

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

Real Avilés may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Arenteiro might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Arenteiro won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 0.8:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Arenteiro won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
17	Real Aviles	6	1	2	3	9:10	-1	5

Last Results with these Odds

Arenteiro - the odds 2.23 are the expected chance of winning is 41.62%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Real Avilés - the odds 3.18 are the expected chance of winning is 29.19%, but this team recently wins 9% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Arenteiro
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
30.01.26	Arenteiro - Athletic Bilbao B	1:1 ✺
24.01.26	Ferrol - Arenteiro	2:0 ✺
17.01.26	Pontevedra - Arenteiro	1:1 ✺
10.01.26	Arenteiro - Lugo	0:2 ✺
04.01.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Arenteiro	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 TLTLL
- Real Avilés
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
31.01.26	Real Avilés - Mérida AD	1:2 ✺
25.01.26	Real Avilés - Lugo	1:2 ✺
16.01.26	Athletic Bilbao B - Real Avilés	0:1 ✺
10.01.26	Real Avilés - Pontevedra	0:3 ✺
03.01.26	Ourense CF - Real Avilés	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
02.11.25	Real Avilés - Arenteiro	1:0
Spanish Copa del Rey
01.11.23	Real Avilés - Arenteiro	0:1
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
19.02.23	Real Avilés - Arenteiro	1:1
02.10.22	Arenteiro - Real Avilés	1:1
15.05.22	Real Avilés - Arenteiro	1:1
09.01.22	Arenteiro - Real Avilés	1:0

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