Match Info

Date: 4 March 2022, Friday


	Arminia Bielefeld		Augsburg

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.25	2.9	Watch
	2.5	3.2	2.87	Watch
	2.43	3.15	3.05
	2.6	3.15	2.8
	2.66	3.23	2.98
	2.45	3.25	2.9	Watch
	2.56	3.38	2.95	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.53 ↓ (2.58)	3.23 ↓ (3.32)	2.92 ↑ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arminia Bielefeld
37.8%

Draw
29.6%

Augsburg
32.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.8%

28.6%

34.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.1%

21%

25.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arminia Bielefeld has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Augsburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arminia Bielefeld than the current prediction. (+12.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Arminia Bielefeld, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Augsburg than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Augsburg, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
26.5%	60.2%	13.3%

Arminia Bielefeld - Augsburg Predictions

Users Predictions: 83 users predict this event. Arminia will win (votes: 22 - 26.5%). Augsburg will win (votes: 11 - 13.3%). It will Tie (votes: 50 - 60.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 49.7% – 70.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Arminia has the most likely position - 15 (23.23%), has project points - 34, has currently - 25, has a chance of relegated (22%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has not chance of win league.

Augsburg has the most likely position - 15 (20.98%), has project points - 35, has currently - 23, has a chance of relegated (19%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has not chance of win league.

This event has quality 59, importance 50, match rating 54. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Recently Augsburg have a series of home games.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Arminia won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Arminia won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arminia Bielefeld
German Bundesliga
26.02.22	Bayer Leverkusen - Arminia Bielefeld	3:0 ✺
19.02.22	Arminia Bielefeld - Union Berlin	1:0 ✺
13.02.22	Hoffenheim - Arminia Bielefeld	2:0 ✺
05.02.22	Arminia Bielefeld - Borussia Mönchengladbach	1:1 ✺
21.01.22	Eintracht Frankfurt - Arminia Bielefeld	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.9 LWLTW
- FC Augsburg
German Bundesliga
27.02.22	Augsburg - Borussia Dortmund	1:1 ✺
19.02.22	Augsburg - Freiburg	1:2 ✺
12.02.22	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Augsburg	3:2 ✺
05.02.22	Augsburg - Union Berlin	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
27.01.22	Augsburg - Jahn Regensburg	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 TLLWT

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
17.10.21	Augsburg - Arminia Bielefeld	1:1
17.04.21	Augsburg - Arminia Bielefeld	0:0
16.12.20	Arminia Bielefeld - Augsburg	0:1

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