Match Info

GERMANY: DFB Pokal - 1/16-finals

Date: 30 October 2024, Wednesday

Location: Schüco Arena (Bielefeld)

Referee: Haslberger W. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 4
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport 4, Sky Sport 8, Sky Sport Mix, Sky Sport Top event, WOW
Switzerland	Sky Sport Top Event
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 9
World	Disney+


	Arminia Bielefeld		Union Berlin

	1	X	2
	5.75	3.9	1.57	Watch
	5.25	4	1.62
	5.5	4	1.62	Watch
	5.51	4.05	1.61
	5.56	4.11	1.6	Watch
	5	3.9	1.55
	5.35	4.05	1.62	Watch
	5.5	4	1.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.43 ↑ (4.43)	4 ↓ (4.11)	1.6 ↓ (1.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arminia Bielefeld
17.4%

Draw
23.6%

Union Berlin
59%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.5%

23.2%

55.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.7%

22.4%

57.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arminia Bielefeld has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Union Berlin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arminia Bielefeld than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Union Berlin than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.2%	18.7%	75%

Arminia Bielefeld - Union Berlin Predictions

Users Predictions: Union Berlin will win (12 of 15 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.76% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kersken J. (G) 24. Lannert C. 19. Grosser M. 23. Schneider L. 4. Oppie L. 21. Russo S. 8. Schreck S. 6. Corboz M. (C) 38. Worl M. 13. Kunze L. 37. Sarenren Bazee N. J.	1. Ronnow F. (G) 5. Doekhi D. 2. Vogt K. 4. Leite D. 19. Haberer J. 13. Schafer A. 8. Khedira R. (C) 24. Skov R. 7. Vertessen Y. 20. Benes L. 17. Siebatcheu J.
Substitutes
39. Becker A. 5. Belkahia S. 17. Biankadi M. 2. Hagmann F. 9. Hilterman J. 25. Mizuta K. 18. Oppermann L. (G) 22. Schroers M. 30. Young I.	16. Hollerbach B. 36. Kemlein A. 14. Querfeld L. 15. Rothe T. 26. Roussillon J. 37. Schwolow A. (G) 21. Skarke T. 28. Trimmel C. 10. Volland K.
Coaches
Kniat M.	Svensson B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Worl M. ⚽,
45+2', Sarenren Bazee N. J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Schafer A. ↓, Kemlein A. ↑,
46', Vertessen Y. ↓, Skarke T. ↑,
46', Sarenren Bazee N. J. ↓, Becker A. ↑,
57', Skov R. ↓, Rothe T. ↑,
65', Lannert C. ↓, Hagmann F. ↑,
65', Kunze L. ↓, Mizuta K. ↑,
71', 2 - 0, Becker A. ⚽, Worl M. (A),
76', Hollerbach B. 🟨,
76', Vogt K. ↓, Volland K. ↑,
79', Worl M. ↓, Young I. ↑,
82', Becker A. 🟨,
82', 🟨,
90+6', Schreck S. ↓, Belkahia S. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Arminia won 1.

Now both teams are in good shape.

Arminia could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Union Berlin is a favorite.

Last 16 head-to-head matches Arminia won 2 matches, drawn 8 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 16:26 (average 1:1.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Arminia won 2 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 10:7 (average 1.4:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arminia Bielefeld
German 3 Bundesliga
26.10.24	Arminia Bielefeld - Alemannia Aachen	1:1 ✺
23.10.24	Hannover II - Arminia Bielefeld	1:4 ✺
20.10.24	Arminia Bielefeld - Osnabrück	3:1 ✺
06.10.24	Saarbrücken - Arminia Bielefeld	0:0 ✺
29.09.24	Arminia Bielefeld - Verl	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 TWWTW
- Union Berlin
German Bundesliga
27.10.24	Union Berlin - Eintracht Frankfurt	1:1 ✺
20.10.24	Holstein Kiel - Union Berlin	0:2 ✺
05.10.24	Union Berlin - Borussia Dortmund	2:1 ✺
28.09.24	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Union Berlin	1:0 ✺
21.09.24	Union Berlin - Hoffenheim	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
06.01.24	Union Berlin - Arminia Bielefeld	2:0
German Bundesliga
19.02.22	Arminia Bielefeld - Union Berlin	1:0
25.09.21	Union Berlin - Arminia Bielefeld	1:0
07.03.21	Arminia Bielefeld - Union Berlin	0:0
07.11.20	Union Berlin - Arminia Bielefeld	5:0
German 2 Bundesliga
22.02.19	Union Berlin - Arminia Bielefeld	1:1
22.09.18	Arminia Bielefeld - Union Berlin	1:1

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