The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Arminia Bielefeld 9.1%
Draw 15.7%
RB Leipzig 75.2%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
14.5%
21%
64.5%
Our Initial ML Estimation
14.1%
20.4%
66.5%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Arminia Bielefeld has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Arminia Bielefeld's form might have worsened.
RB Leipzig has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.7%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting RB Leipzig's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arminia Bielefeld than the current prediction. (+5%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (-8.7%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for RB Leipzig, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
28.4%
6%
65.7%
Arminia Bielefeld - RB Leipzig Predictions
Users Predictions:
67 users predict this event. Arminia will win (votes: 19 - 28.4%). RB Leipzig will win (votes: 44 - 65.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 6%). Confidence interval (95%) for RB Leipzig: 54.3% โ 77.1%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2
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Preview
This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Group Stage)).
Arminia has the most likely position - 17 (99.99%), has project points - 27, has currently - 27, has a very good chance of relegated (>99%), has not chance of qualify for ucl.
RB Leipzig has the most likely position - 4 (97.93%), has project points - 59, has currently - 57, has not chance of relegated, has a very good chance of qualify for ucl (98%), has not chance of win league.
This event has quality61, importance44, match rating52. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
Arminia has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
Recent matches RB Leipzig is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
Arminia could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
In this match RB Leipzig is absolute favorite.
Last 5 head-to-head matches Arminia won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 4-5.
Including matches at home between the teams Arminia won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 0-2.
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