Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 25

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Red Bull Arena (Leipzig)

Referee: Petersen M. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	Onefootball


	RB Leipzig		Augsburg

	1	X	2
	1.33	5.5	8	Watch
	1.37	4.95	8.8	Watch
	1.36	5.7	8.16
	1.35	5.61	7.84	Watch
	1.33	5	7
	1.37	5.64	8.21	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.51)	5.4 ↑ (4.77)	8 ↑ (5.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

RB Leipzig
70.5%

Draw
17.6%

Augsburg
11.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63%

19.9%

17.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.2%

18.7%

18.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

RB Leipzig has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in RB Leipzig's performance.

Augsburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Augsburg might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (-11.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with RB Leipzig that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Augsburg than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Augsburg could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
69.7%	12.1%	18.2%

RB Leipzig - Augsburg Predictions

Users Predictions: 32 users predict this event. RB Leipzig will win (votes: 23 - 71.9%). Augsburg will win (votes: 6 - 18.8%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 9.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for RB Leipzig: 56.3% – 87.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.25 - RB Leipzig (1.84) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Augsburg (7.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): RB Leipzig will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. RB Leipzig (votes: 6 - 75%). Augsburg (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Vandevoordt M. (G) 17. Baku R. 4. Orban W. 23. Lukeba C. 22. Raum D. (C) 10. Gruda B. 13. Seiwald N. 14. Baumgartner C. 49. Diomande Y. 40. Romulo Cardoso 7. Nusa A.	1. Dahmen F. (G) 40. Banks N. 31. Schlotterbeck K. (C) 34. Arthur Chaves 19. Fellhauer R. 4. Massengo H. 17. Jakic K. 13. Giannoulis D. 32. Rieder F. 36. Komur M. 21. Ribeiro R.
Substitutes
9. Bakayoko J. 6. Banzuzi E. 5. Bitshiabu E. 35. Finkgrafe M. 27. Gomis T. 11. Harder C. 39. Henrichs B. 33. Maksimovic A. 25. Zingerle L. (G)	11. Gharbi I. 38. Gregoritsch M. 30. Kade A. 22. Labrovic N. (G) 3. Pedersen M. 8. Rexhbecaj E. 37. Schnitzer T. 27. Wolf M.
Coaches
Werner O.	Baum M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
23', Schlotterbeck K. (Penalty Awarded),
39', 0 - 1, Fellhauer R. ⚽, Rieder F. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Komur M. ↓, Kade A. ↑,
61', Nusa A. ↓, Bakayoko J. ↑,
61', Gruda B. ↓, Banzuzi E. ↑,
62', Banks N. 🟨,
72', Fellhauer R. ↓, Wolf M. ↑,
74', Romulo Cardoso ↓, Harder C. ↑,
74', Baku R. ↓, Henrichs B. ↑,
76', 1 - 1, Diomande Y. ⚽, Harder C. (A),
77', Jakic K. ↓, Rexhbecaj E. ↑,
78', Giannoulis D. 🟨,
84', Banks N. ↓, Schnitzer T. ↑,
85', Ribeiro R. ↓, Gregoritsch M. ↑,
90+2', 2 - 1, Arthur Chaves (Own goal),
90+5', Diomande Y. ↓, Gomis T. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: ) and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, RB Leipzig won 3.

In recent matches, RB Leipzig has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Augsburg is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

RB Leipzig may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, RB Leipzig is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in RB Leipzig: Gebel V. (Knee Injury) Gulacsi P. (Knee Injury) Nedeljkovic K. (Back Injury) Ouedraogo A. (Knee Injury) Schlager X. (Groin Injury)

There will not play in Augsburg: Gouweleeuw J. (Knee Injury) Keitel Y. (Knee Injury) Matsima C. (Muscle Injury) Ogundu U. (Ankle Injury) Zesiger C. (Yellow Cards)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, RB Leipzig won 12 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 44:15. (average 2.2:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, RB Leipzig won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 21:4. (average 2.6:0.5).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

RB Leipzig: 2.84% Augsburg: 0.26%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Augsburg	4	2	1	1	11:6	5	7
9	RB Leipzig	4	2	0	2	9:5	4	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RB Leipzig
German Bundesliga
01.03.26	Hamburger SV - RB Leipzig	1:2 ✺
21.02.26	RB Leipzig - Borussia Dortmund	2:2 ✺
15.02.26	RB Leipzig - Wolfsburg	2:2 ✺
German DFB Pokal
11.02.26	Bayern Munich - RB Leipzig	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
08.02.26	Köln - RB Leipzig	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WTTLW
- FC Augsburg
German Bundesliga
27.02.26	Augsburg - Köln	2:0 ✺
21.02.26	Wolfsburg - Augsburg	2:3 ✺
15.02.26	Augsburg - Heidenheim	1:0 ✺
07.02.26	Mainz - Augsburg	2:0 ✺
31.01.26	Augsburg - St. Pauli	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
25.10.25	Augsburg - RB Leipzig	0:6
14.02.25	Augsburg - RB Leipzig	0:0
28.09.24	RB Leipzig - Augsburg	4:0
10.02.24	Augsburg - RB Leipzig	2:2
16.09.23	RB Leipzig - Augsburg	3:0
15.04.23	RB Leipzig - Augsburg	3:2
22.10.22	Augsburg - RB Leipzig	3:3

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