Match Info

GERMANY: Bundesliga - Round 7

Date: 20 October 2024, Sunday

Location: Holstein-Stadion (Kiel)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Holstein Kiel		Union Berlin

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.5	2.15	Watch
	3.4	3.4	2.1
	3.5	3.5	2.15	Watch
	3.58	3.5	2.16
	3.55	3.49	2.16	Watch
	3.5	3.4	2.1	Watch
	3.6	3.6	2.17	Watch
	3.5	3.5	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.5 ↓ (3.69)	3.49 (3.49)	2.14 ↑ (2.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Holstein Kiel
27.5%

Draw
27.6%

Union Berlin
44.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.9%

27.5%

46.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.8%

27.4%

46.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Holstein Kiel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Union Berlin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Holstein Kiel than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Union Berlin than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10.8%	18.9%	70.3%

Holstein Kiel - Union Berlin Predictions

Users Predictions: 34 users predict this event. Holstein Kiel will win (votes: 3 - 8.8%). Union Berlin will win (votes: 24 - 70.6%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 20.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Union Berlin: 55.3% – 85.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Weiner T. (G) 6. Ivezic M. 4. Erras P. 3. Komenda M. 17. Becker T. (C) 24. Knudsen M. 8. Porath F. 22. Remberg N. 37. Gigovic A. 11. Bernhardsson A. 9. Pichler B.	1. Ronnow F. (G) 5. Doekhi D. 2. Vogt K. 4. Leite D. 28. Trimmel C. (C) 36. Kemlein A. 8. Khedira R. 15. Rothe T. 21. Skarke T. 16. Hollerbach B. 7. Vertessen Y.
Substitutes
20. Arp J.-F. 21. Dahne T. (G) 14. Geschwill M. 33. Javorcek D. 18. Machino S. 27. Puchacz T. 23. Rosenboom L. 15. Schulz M. 7. Skrzybski S.	20. Benes L. 19. Haberer J. 11. Jeong Woo-Yeong 14. Querfeld L. 26. Roussillon J. 37. Schwolow A. (G) 17. Siebatcheu J. 24. Skov R. 10. Volland K.
Coaches
Rapp M.	Svensson B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
18', 0 - 1, Kemlein A. ⚽, Rothe T. (A),
27', Skarke T. ↓, Jeong Woo-Yeong ↑,
34', Bernhardsson A. ↓, Skrzybski S. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Knudsen M. ↓, Machino S. ↑,
66', Komenda M. 🟨,
68', Erras P. ↓, Puchacz T. ↑,
73', Ronnow F. 🟨,
75', Vertessen Y. ↓, Benes L. ↑,
75', Hollerbach B. ↓, Siebatcheu J. ↑,
79', Remberg N. 🟨,
79', Porath F. ↓, Schulz M. ↑,
80', Gigovic A. ↓, Arp J.-F. ↑,
87', Siebatcheu J. ↓, Skov R. ↑,
87', Kemlein A. ↓, Haberer J. ↑,
89', 0 - 2, Rothe T. ⚽, Benes L. (A),

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga and 7).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Holstein Kiel won 2.

Holstein Kiel is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Union Berlin is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Union Berlin will have a poor advantage in this game.

There will not play in Holstein Kiel: Johansson C. (Concussion) Kelati A. Y. (Knee Injury) Kleine-Bekel C. (Surgery)

There will not play in Union Berlin: Juranovic J. (Leg Injury) Tousart L. (Injury)

There are questionable in Union Berlin: Prtajin I. (Knee Injury) Volland K. (Knee Injury)

Last 7 head-to-head matches Holstein Kiel won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 10:16 (average 1.4:2.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Holstein Kiel won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5:6 (average 1.7:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Holstein Kiel
German Bundesliga
05.10.24	Bayer Leverkusen - Holstein Kiel	2:2 ✺
29.09.24	Holstein Kiel - Eintracht Frankfurt	2:4 ✺
21.09.24	Bochum - Holstein Kiel	2:2 ✺
14.09.24	Holstein Kiel - Bayern Munich	1:6 ✺
31.08.24	Holstein Kiel - Wolfsburg	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 27.1 TLTLL
- Union Berlin
German Bundesliga
05.10.24	Union Berlin - Borussia Dortmund	2:1 ✺
28.09.24	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Union Berlin	1:0 ✺
21.09.24	Union Berlin - Hoffenheim	2:1 ✺
14.09.24	RB Leipzig - Union Berlin	0:0 ✺
30.08.24	Union Berlin - St. Pauli	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
22.07.23	Union Berlin - Holstein Kiel	1:2
13.11.19	Union Berlin - Holstein Kiel	3:0
German 2 Bundesliga
01.03.19	Holstein Kiel - Union Berlin	0:2
25.09.18	Union Berlin - Holstein Kiel	2:0
Club Friendly
26.03.18	Holstein Kiel - Union Berlin	3:2
German 2 Bundesliga
23.01.18	Holstein Kiel - Union Berlin	2:2
04.08.17	Union Berlin - Holstein Kiel	4:3

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