Match Info

ARGENTINA: COPA DE LA LIGA PROFESIONAL - ROUND 7

Date: 30 September 2023, Saturday

Location: Estadio Julio Humberto Grondona (Avellaneda)

Referee: Acita F. (Arg)


	Arsenal Sarandí		Defensa y Justicia

	1	X	2
	2.6	3	2.88	Watch
	2.6	3.1	2.75
	2.82	3.1	2.58	Watch
	2.74	3.05	2.95
	2.57	3.15	2.81
	2.7	3.05	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↓ (3.23)	3.08 ↓ (3.28)	2.78 ↑ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arsenal Sarandí
35.3%

Draw
30.7%

Defensa y Justicia
34%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.9%

28.5%

42.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.1%

27.7%

43.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arsenal Sarandí has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Arsenal Sarandí's performance.

Defensa y Justicia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Defensa y Justicia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arsenal Sarandí than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Arsenal Sarandí that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Defensa y Justicia than the current prediction. (+9.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Defensa y Justicia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.3%	54.5%	18.2%

Arsenal Sarandí - Defensa y Justicia Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Arsenal Sarandí will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Defensa y Justicia will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 54.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Medina A. (C) 4. Chimino C. 25. Breitenbruch N. 13. Pombo J. 5. Sporle A. 11. Brochero L. 18. Muscia G. 8. Rivero B. 20. Viveros E. 28. Moreira L. 27. Cejas J.	23. Bologna E. (G) 15. Escalante L. T. 2. Malatini J. 21. Ramos S. 3. Soto A. (C) 34. Lopez L. 35. Schamine F. 12. Beron J. 10. Bogarin R. 27. Solari S. 36. Echevarria F.
Substitutes
19. Aguirre N. 37. Alvarez A. 36. Amarilla A. 31. Cabrera I. 30. Cardozo F. 33. Cavallaro J. 22. Guzman L. 21. Peinipil J. 7. Pons F. 29. Sosa B. 1. Sultani T. (G) 15. Vega F.	26. Caceres D. 30. Castellani G. 7. Duarte M. 28. Fedele L. 22. Fiermarin C. (G) 6. Gissi D. 8. Lopez J. 18. Pratto L. 9. Rios A. 11. Togni G. 4. Tripichio N.
Coaches
Espinola D.	Vaccari J.

Preview

Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 14 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa de la Liga Profesional (Play Offs: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Arsenal Sarandí won 1.

Arsenal Sarandí is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Defensa y Justicia is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Defensa y Justicia could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Arsenal Sarandí have a series of guest games.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 13 head-to-head matches Arsenal Sarandí won 4 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 9-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Arsenal Sarandí won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arsenal Sarandí
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
25.09.23	Atlético Tucumán - Arsenal Sarandí	1:0 ✺
20.09.23	Vélez Sársfield - Arsenal Sarandí	2:1 ✺
17.09.23	River Plate - Arsenal Sarandí	3:1 ✺
04.09.23	Barracas Central - Arsenal Sarandí	2:1 ✺
25.08.23	Arsenal Sarandí - Argentinos Juniors	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LLLLW
- Defensa y Justicia
Copa Sudamericana
27.09.23	LDU Quito - Defensa y Justicia	3:0 ✺
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
23.09.23	Central Córdoba - Defensa y Justicia	2:1 ✺
20.09.23	Defensa y Justicia - Tigre	2:0 ✺
15.09.23	Defensa y Justicia - Boca Juniors	1:0 ✺
11.09.23	Defensa y Justicia - Godoy Cruz	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
06.07.23	Arsenal Sarandí - Defensa y Justicia	1:2
01.08.22	Defensa y Justicia - Arsenal Sarandí	0:0
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
21.03.22	Defensa y Justicia - Arsenal Sarandí	1:1
Argentinian Liga Profesional
29.08.21	Arsenal Sarandí - Defensa y Justicia	0:0
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
25.04.21	Defensa y Justicia - Arsenal Sarandí	0:1
Argentinian Liga Profesional
18.08.19	Defensa y Justicia - Arsenal Sarandí	0:3
12.05.18	Defensa y Justicia - Arsenal Sarandí	2:0

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