Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA SUDAMERICANA - PLAY OFFS - SEMI-FINALS

Date: 27 September 2023, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado (Quito)

Referee: Claus R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV
Australia	beIN Sports
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Croatia	Arena Sport
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Netherlands	ESPN
Norway	Viaplay
Portugal	Sport TV2
Serbia	Arena Sport
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool


	LDU Quito		Defensa y Justicia

	1	X	2
	1.55	4	6.5	Watch
	1.53	3.9	6
	1.55	4	6	Watch
	1.57	3.88	6.9
	1.5	3.8	6
	1.55	4.05	5.9	Watch
	1.54	4	5.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↓ (1.67)	3.95 ↑ (3.61)	6.16 ↑ (5.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

Watch this match and Copa Sudamericana with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: beIN SPORTS En Espa√±ol (Canada)

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Current Win Probability

LDU Quito
60.9%

Draw
23.8%

Defensa y Justicia
15.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.8%

25.8%

18.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.7%

25.4%

18.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

LDU Quito has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in LDU Quito's performance.

Defensa y Justicia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for LDU Quito than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Defensa y Justicia than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	6.7%	13.3%

LDU Quito - Defensa y Justicia Predictions

Users Predictions: LDU Quito will win (12 of 15 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.76% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Dominguez A. (G) 14. Quinteros J. 4. Ade R. 6. Rodriguez F. 33. Quinonez L. 16. Martinez M. 18. Piovi L. (C) 32. Ibarra R. 21. Gonzalez Baquero S. 26. Jhojan Julio 24. Paolo Guerrero	23. Bologna E. (G) 26. Caceres D. 2. Malatini J. 21. Ramos S. 3. Soto A. 4. Tripichio N. 8. Lopez J. (C) 27. Solari S. 19. Barbona D. 11. Togni G. 18. Pratto L.
Substitutes
9. Alzugaray L. 19. Angulo J. 11. Chala W. 49. Charcopa J. 23. Gabbarini A. (G) 30. Luna D. 34. Mina A. 3. Mina R. 29. Ramirez Leon B. J. 13. Romero Padilla D. A. 25. Valverde J. 5. Zambrano O.	17. Alanis G. 12. Beron J. 10. Bogarin R. 25. Cardona T. 30. Castellani G. 7. Duarte M. 36. Echevarria F. 15. Escalante L. T. 1. Escobar L. (G) 6. Gissi D. 34. Lopez L. 9. Rios A.
Coaches
Zubeldia L.	Vaccari J.

Preview

1st leg.

Right away both teams are in a satisfying form.

Defensa y Justicia could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match LDU Quito is indisputable favorite.

Our prediction for today's LDU Quito to win the game is with odds 1.53.

Last 2 head-to-head matches LDU Quito won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-3.

Including matches at home between the teams LDU Quito won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- LDU Quito
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
22.09.23	LDU Quito - Orense	1:0 ✺
17.09.23	Barcelona Guayaquil - LDU Quito	1:0 ✺
04.09.23	LDU Quito - Guayaquil City	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
31.08.23	São Paulo - LDU Quito	1:1 penalties ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
27.08.23	Gualaceo - LDU Quito	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.7 WLWWW
- Defensa y Justicia
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
23.09.23	Central Córdoba - Defensa y Justicia	2:1 ✺
20.09.23	Defensa y Justicia - Tigre	2:0 ✺
15.09.23	Defensa y Justicia - Boca Juniors	1:0 ✺
11.09.23	Defensa y Justicia - Godoy Cruz	2:2 ✺
Copa Argentina
06.09.23	Estudiantes de Río Cuarto - Defensa y Justicia	0:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
18.05.22	LDU Quito - Defensa y Justicia	2:2
28.04.22	Defensa y Justicia - LDU Quito	1:2

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