Match Info

Liga Profesional - Apertura - Round 16

Date: 23 April 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello (Gobernador Julio A. Costa)

Referee: Gariano A. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Defensa y Justicia		Boca Juniors

	1	X	2
	2.7	2.65	2.55	Watch
	2.92	2.92	2.62
	3.21	2.93	2.65
	2.91	2.95	2.7	Watch
	2.88	2.8	2.63
	2.94	2.86	2.61	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.93 ↓ (3.53)	2.85 ↓ (3.07)	2.63 ↑ (2.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Defensa y Justicia
31.8%

Draw
32.7%

Boca Juniors
35.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.8%

30.8%

42.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.5%

30.5%

42.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Defensa y Justicia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

Boca Juniors has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Boca Juniors might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Defensa y Justicia than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Defensa y Justicia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Boca Juniors than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Boca Juniors could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	33.3%	66.7%

Defensa y Justicia - Boca Juniors Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Boca Juniors will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Defensa y Justicia (1.72) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Defensa y Justicia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Fiermarin C. (G) 33. Souto L. 6. Amor E. 29. Fernandez D. 16. Portillo A. 10. Molinas A. (C) 15. Sosa S. 26. Caceres D. 20. Botta R. 17. Hausch A. 24. Gutierrez J.	12. Brey L. (G) 24. Barinaga J. 4. Figal J. (C) 26. Pellegrino M. 27. Braida M. 18. Delgado M. 30. Belmonte T. 29. Angel Romero 20. Velasco A. 7. Zeballos E. 9. Gimenez M.
Substitutes
23. Aguiar M. 25. Altamira F. 36. Amade L. (G) 11. Banega E. 19. Barbona D. 31. Coria A. 9. Gonzalez L. 55. Lopez J. 21. Martinez D. 27. Pereyra E. 8. Perez C. 32. Roselli N.	15. Alarcon Cepeda W. H. 36. Aranda T. 25. Ascacibar S. 28. Bareiro A. 3. Blanco L. 32. Costa A. 2. Di Lollo L. 13. Garcia J. (G) 16. Miguel Merentiel 5. Paredes L. 23. Weigandt M. 22. Zenon K.
Coaches
Soso M.	Ubeda C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
22', 0 - 1, Gimenez M. ⚽, Velasco A. (A),
40', Soso M. 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Angel Romero ↓, Ascacibar S. ↑,
47', Delgado M. 🟨,
54', Hausch A. ↓, Altamira F. ↑,
62', Delgado M. ↓, Paredes L. ↑,
62', Gimenez M. ↓, Bareiro A. ↑,
71', Portillo A. ↓, Gonzalez L. ↑,
71', Amor E. ↓, Banega E. ↑,
71', Caceres D. ↓, Pereyra E. ↑,
72', Botta R. 🟨,
72', Bareiro A. 🟨,
77', 0 - 2, Velasco A. ⚽, Zeballos E. (A),
78', Zeballos E. ↓, Aranda T. ↑,
81', 0 - 3, Ascacibar S. ⚽, Aranda T. (A),
81', Velasco A. ↓, Miguel Merentiel ↑,
83', Botta R. ↓, Aguiar M. ↑,
90+2', 0 - 4, Miguel Merentiel ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Defensa y Justicia won 2.

Defensa y Justicia has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Boca Juniors is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Defensa y Justicia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Boca Juniors will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Defensa y Justicia: Osorio A. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Boca Juniors: Battaglia R. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Carlos Palacios (Knee Injury) Cavani E. (Lower Back Injury) Marchesin A. (Injury)

There are questionable in Boca Juniors: Paredes L. (Injury)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Defensa y Justicia won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 10:22. (average 0.6:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Defensa y Justicia won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:8. (average 0.9:1.1).

Last Results with these Odds

Defensa y Justicia - the odds 3.53 are the expected chance of winning is 26.79%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Boca Juniors - the odds 2.23 are the expected chance of winning is 42.41%, but this team recently wins 27% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Defensa y Justicia
Argentinian Liga Profesional
18.04.26	Independiente - Defensa y Justicia	3:1 ✺
13.04.26	Defensa y Justicia - Talleres de Córdoba	1:2 ✺
06.04.26	Instituto Córdoba - Defensa y Justicia	2:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
01.04.26	Defensa y Justicia - Chaco For Ever	2:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
21.03.26	Defensa y Justicia - Unión Santa Fe	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LLLWW
- Boca Juniors
Argentinian Liga Profesional
19.04.26	River Plate - Boca Juniors	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.04.26	Boca Juniors - Barcelona Guayaquil	3:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
11.04.26	Boca Juniors - Independiente	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
07.04.26	Universidad Católica - Boca Juniors	1:2 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
02.04.26	Talleres de Córdoba - Boca Juniors	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
27.09.25	Defensa y Justicia - Boca Juniors	2:1
16.03.25	Boca Juniors - Defensa y Justicia	4:0
21.07.24	Defensa y Justicia - Boca Juniors	2:2
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
10.02.24	Boca Juniors - Defensa y Justicia	0:0
15.09.23	Defensa y Justicia - Boca Juniors	1:0
Argentinian Liga Profesional
06.03.23	Boca Juniors - Defensa y Justicia	0:0
21.08.22	Defensa y Justicia - Boca Juniors	0:1

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