Match Info

FNL - Round 20

Date: 22 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadion Arsenal (Tula)

Referee: Lapatukhin A. (Rus)


	Arsenal Tula		Chernomorets Novorossiysk

	1	X	2
	1.99	3.15	4.13
	2.18	3.11	3.75	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.09 ↑ (1.89)	3.13 ↓ (3.17)	3.94 ↓ (4.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arsenal Tula
45.6%

Draw
30.3%

Chernomorets Novorossiysk
24.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

29.9%

20.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.9%

29.4%

19.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arsenal Tula has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Chernomorets Novorossiysk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal Tula than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Arsenal Tula, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chernomorets Novorossiysk than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Arsenal Tula - Chernomorets Novorossiysk Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
18. Tsulaya M. (G) 22. Tsaraev A. 4. Penchikov D. 3. Botaka-Yoboma E. 8. Popov A. 31. Bolshakov K. (C) 21. Razdorskikh N. 27. Mirzov R. 10. Gorbunov I. 14. Brnovic M. 9. Kalmykov A.	73. Shtepa M. (G) 13. Puzanov S. 4. Kirsch I. 59. Syshchenko M. 18. Nikolaev O. 8. Tarba Z. 77. Zarypbekov E. 10. Zhigulev I. (C) 69. Rodionov I. 7. Antonov A. 9. Aliev S.
Substitutes
17. Ahlinvi M. 59. Avanesyan T. 24. Azyavin I. 19. Bogdanets K. 44. Isaenko O. 45. Karmaev N. 78. Lipovoy D. 29. Maksimov M. 42. Melikhov A. (G) 46. Moskalenchik I. 95. Obryvkov S. 5. Sergeev D.	15. Alikberov T. 11. Gurchenko D. 5. Krachkovskii A. 44. Kukharchuk I. 32. Matyusha M. (G) 3. Pliev Z. 19. Pomeshkin K. 90. Sutugin I. 81. Tonevitskiy E.
Coaches
Gunko D.	Evseev V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Bolshakov K. 🟨,
25', Zhigulev I. 🟨,
32', Kirsch I. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
63', 0 - 1, Aliev S. (Pen),
63', Tsaraev A. ↓, Ahlinvi M. ↑,
63', Gorbunov I. ↓, Lipovoy D. ↑,
65', Zarypbekov E. 🟨,
73', Brnovic M. ↓, Azyavin I. ↑,
73', Kalmykov A. ↓, Maksimov M. ↑,
77', Aliev S. ↓, Sutugin I. ↑,
82', Rodionov I. ↓, Gurchenko D. ↑,
83', Shtepa M. 🟨,
84', Maksimov M. 🟨,
84', Tarba Z. 🟨,
86', 1 - 1, Mirzov R. ⚽,
90+2', Antonov A. ↓, Pliev Z. ↑,
90+2', Sutugin I. ↓, Kukharchuk I. ↑,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 8 and 14).

Arsenal is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Chernomorets has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Arsenal is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arsenal won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:3. (average 1.2:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Arsenal won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0. (average 1.5:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arsenal Tula
Russian FNL
16.11.25	Ufa - Arsenal Tula	1:2 ✺
08.11.25	Arsenal Tula - Chayka Peschanokopskoye	1:0 ✺
03.11.25	Rotor - Arsenal Tula	1:2 ✺
Russian Cup
30.10.25	Fakel - Arsenal Tula	2:3 ✺
Russian FNL
24.10.25	Arsenal Tula - Ural	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19 WWWWL
- Chernomorets Novorossiysk
Russian FNL
15.11.25	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Volga Ulyanovsk	2:1 ✺
09.11.25	Yenisey Krasnoyarsk - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	1:0 ✺
02.11.25	Spartak Kostroma - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	3:1 ✺
25.10.25	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Chelyabinsk	0:0 ✺
20.10.25	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WLLTT

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL
03.08.25	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Arsenal Tula	1:2
07.03.25	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Arsenal Tula	0:0
13.07.24	Arsenal Tula - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	1:0
03.03.24	Arsenal Tula - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	2:0
12.08.23	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Arsenal Tula	2:1

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