Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 34

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday


	Ashton United		Leek Town

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.25	3
	2.05	3.4	3
	2.08	3.56	3.11
	2.08	3.74	3.11	Watch
	2.05	3.2	3
	2.04	3.46	3.1
	2.1	3.4	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↓ (2.11)	3.43 ↓ (3.62)	3.05 ↓ (3.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ashton United
43.9%

Draw
26.4%

Leek Town
29.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44%

25.6%

30.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

25.4%

30%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ashton United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Leek Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ashton United than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leek Town than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Ashton United - Leek Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
65', 0 - 1, Heath C. ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 11 and 14).

Ashton is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Leek has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Ashton may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Ashton will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Ashton won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.7:1.7).

Including home match between the teams, Ashton won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Ashton Utd	10	3	3	4	12:11	1	12
17	Leek	11	2	4	5	22:23	-1	10

Last Results with these Odds

Leek Town - the odds 3.06 are the expected chance of winning is 30.34%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ashton United
English NPL Premier Division
28.02.26	Morpeth Town - Ashton United	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	Ashton United - Stockton Town	1:2 ✺
07.02.26	Ashton United - Warrington Town	1:0 ✺
03.02.26	Ashton United - Gainsborough Trinity	0:3 ✺
31.01.26	Lancaster City - Ashton United	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 TLWLL
- Leek Town
English NPL Premier Division
28.02.26	Leek Town - Stockton Town	0:0 ✺
24.02.26	Gainsborough Trinity - Leek Town	2:0 ✺
21.02.26	Leek Town - Hebburn Town	0:0 ✺
14.02.26	Lancaster City - Leek Town	2:1 ✺
07.02.26	Leek Town - Gainsborough Trinity	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 TLTLW

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
11.11.25	Leek Town - Ashton United	2:0
22.03.25	Leek Town - Ashton United	3:1
16.11.24	Ashton United - Leek Town	1:0

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