Match Info

EUROPE: CHAMPIONS LEAGUE - QUALIFICATION - 1/8-FINALS

Date: 12 July 2023, Wednesday

Location: Astana Arena (Astana)

Referee: Ciochirca P. (Aut)


	Astana		Dinamo Tbilisi

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.4	4	Watch
	1.88	3.25	3.9
	1.8	3.4	4.4
	1.91	3.4	4.25
	1.95	3.37	4.22
	1.75	3.2	4.2
	1.86	3.6	4.15	Watch
	1.91	3.45	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↑ (1.64)	3.38 ↓ (3.62)	4.17 ↓ (5.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Astana
49.9%

Draw
27.6%

Dinamo Tbilisi
22.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.8%

25.8%

17.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.7%

25%

16.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Astana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Astana's form might have worsened.

Dinamo Tbilisi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Astana than the current prediction. (+8.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Astana, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dinamo Tbilisi than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Dinamo Tbilisi, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.4%	7%	11.6%

Astana - Dinamo Tbilisi Predictions

Users Predictions: Astana will win (35 of 43 users predict this - 81.4%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.77% – 93.03%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
93. Condric J. (G) 3. Haroyan V. 15. Beysebekov A. (C) 45. Amanovic A. 5. Gabyshev M. 29. Jovancic D. 7. Ebong M. 6. Vorogovskiy Y. 10. Tomasov M. 17. Aymbetov A. 23. Ourega F.	17. Loria G. (G) 2. Mali N. 33. Margvelashvili G. 13. Tabidze J. 24. Kobouri D. 12. Kharaishvili G. 18. Osei B. 38. Sigua G. 11. Oulad Omar I. 28. Camara O. 7. Skhirtladze D. (C)
Substitutes
21. Astanov E. 72. Basmanov S. 11. Darabayev A. 88. Darboe D. 27. Dosmagambetov T. 13. Hovhannisyan K. 8. Kuat I. 31. Podymskiy D. (G) 20. Prokopenko V. 55. Zarutskiy A. (G) 97. Zhaksylykov N.	14. Iobashvili J. 3. Kalandadze A. 1. Kereselidze D. (G) 4. Khvadagiani S. 30. Kutaladze L. (G) 21. Lakvekheliani L. 31. Maisuradze G. 8. Moistsrapishvili G. 16. Osikmashvili L. 40. Sangare M.
Coaches
Babayan G.	Chiabrishvili G.

Preview

1st leg.

Astana is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Dinamo Tbilisi is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Dinamo Tbilisi could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Astana is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Astana
Kazakh Cup
06.07.23	Ordabasy - Astana	2:0 ET ✺
Kazakh Premier League
02.07.23	Kaspiy Aktau - Astana	1:2 ✺
Kazakh Cup
28.06.23	Astana - Ordabasy	1:0 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
24.06.23	Astana - Kaspiy Aktau	3:1 ✺
Kazakh Cup
07.06.23	Turan Turkistan - Astana	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LWWWT
- Dinamo Tbilisi
Georgian Super Cup
04.07.23	Dinamo Batumi - Dinamo Tbilisi	1:2 penalties ✺
30.06.23	Dinamo Tbilisi - Dila Gori	2:1 penalties ✺
Georgian Erovnuli Liga
05.06.23	Dinamo Tbilisi - Samtredia	3:0 ✺
01.06.23	Iberia 1999 - Dinamo Tbilisi	2:1 ✺
28.05.23	Dinamo Tbilisi - Dinamo Batumi	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WWWLL

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