Match Info

Premier League - Round 9

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Centralnyj Stadion (Kostanay)

Referee: Sakhi D. (Kaz)

Where to Watch on TV:


Kazakhstan	Qazsport


	Tobol Kostanay		Ertis Pavlodar

	1	X	2
	1.82	3.45	3.95	Watch
	1.85	3.65	4.45
	1.7	3.71	4.34	Watch
	1.85	3.3	3.6
	1.9	3.58	3.79	Watch
	1.77	3.14	3.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↓ (1.88)	3.47 ↓ (3.54)	3.91 ↑ (3.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tobol Kostanay
50.3%

Draw
26.3%

Ertis Pavlodar
23.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.9%

26%

25.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.1%

25.9%

25.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tobol Kostanay has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Ertis Pavlodar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tobol Kostanay than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ertis Pavlodar than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Tobol Kostanay - Ertis Pavlodar Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Ertis (2.04) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Tobol Kostanay will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ertis (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Busurmanov S. (G) 21. Zhagorov N. 22. Marochkin A. 5. Ndiaye P. 3. Asrankulov R. 8. Tagybergen A. 13. Cisse A. 30. Guerra L. 19. Zhumat D. 7. Zhumashev Z. 18. Milovanovic U.	16. Botnar V. (G) 27. Nechaev D. 5. Toleuov B. 33. Ibrahim F. 22. Stephen G. 8. Zharynbetov S. 98. Sedko P. 6. Shimamura Y. 7. Klimovich V. 97. Poe J. 17. Turlybek M.
Substitutes
38. Bakitzhanov A. 26. Glushchenkov K. 88. Kalmyrza M. 11. Marat D. 35. Melikhov Y. (G) 51. Mukhin D. (G) 6. Myakish M. 33. Pivovarov I. 14. Talal A. 29. Usenov D. 17. Zuev A.	10. Agimanov T. 13. Baybosynov N. 21. Buranchiev A. 12. Karimov R. 15. Nyrkov D. 9. Omatay M. 14. Raskatov V. 1. Rikhard M. (G) 18. Shvyrev V. 20. Usenov A.
Coaches
Romashchenko M.	Alshevskiy K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
43', Poe J. ↓, Baybosynov N. ↑,
45+3', Asrankulov R. 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Zhumat D. ↓, Zuev A. ↑,
52', 1 - 0, Milovanovic U. ⚽, Zhagorov N. (A),
61', Sedko P. ↓, Agimanov T. ↑,
61', Shimamura Y. ↓, Shvyrev V. ↑,
74', Nechaev D. ↓, Nyrkov D. ↑,
74', Zharynbetov S. ↓, Omatay M. ↑,
80', Zhumashev Z. ↓, Marat D. ↑,
90', Agimanov T. 🟨,
90', Turlybek M. 🟨,
90', Busurmanov S. 🟨,
90+1', Tagybergen A. ↓, Talal A. ↑,
90+2', Zhagorov N. ↓, Kalmyrza M. ↑,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 14 and 12)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tobol won 2.

Tobol has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ertis has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Tobol is a strong favorite.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Tobol won 8 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 22:13. (average 1.2:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Tobol won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:6. (average 1.1:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Tobol	26	10	4	12	33:35	-2	34
11	Ertis Pavlodar	25	6	8	11	26:34	-8	26

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tobol Kostanay
Kazakh Premier League
03.05.26	Zhenis - Tobol Kostanay	1:0 ✺
Kazakh Cup
29.04.26	Astana - Tobol Kostanay	1:2 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
26.04.26	Tobol Kostanay - Kaspiy Aktau	2:1 ✺
19.04.26	Ulytau - Tobol Kostanay	2:1 ✺
11.04.26	Tobol Kostanay - Kairat	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 LWWLT
- Ertis Pavlodar
Kazakh Premier League
02.05.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Kairat	0:1 ✺
Kazakh Cup
29.04.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Kyzylzhar	1:2 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
25.04.26	Aktobe - Ertis Pavlodar	1:0 ✺
18.04.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Zhetysu	1:2 ✺
12.04.26	Okzhetpes - Ertis Pavlodar	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
17.08.19	Ertis Pavlodar - Tobol Kostanay	0:0
11.08.19	Ertis Pavlodar - Tobol Kostanay	0:2
09.03.19	Tobol Kostanay - Ertis Pavlodar	3:0
06.10.18	Tobol Kostanay - Ertis Pavlodar	1:2
22.07.18	Tobol Kostanay - Ertis Pavlodar	1:1
09.05.18	Ertis Pavlodar - Tobol Kostanay	0:1
10.09.17	Ertis Pavlodar - Tobol Kostanay	1:2

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