Match Info

Premier League - Round 10

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Centralnyj Stadion (Pavlodar)

Referee: Tevyashov D. (Kaz)

Where to Watch on TV:


Kazakhstan	Qazsport


	Ertis Pavlodar		Yelimay Semey

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.25	2.15	Watch
	3.08	3.71	2.05
	3.13	3.84	1.97	Watch
	2.63	3.1	2.38
	3.17	3.24	2.28	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.02 ↓ (4.26)	3.43 ↑ (3.14)	2.17 ↑ (1.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ertis Pavlodar
30.5%

Draw
26.9%

Yelimay Semey
42.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.6%

29.3%

49.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.3%

25%

42%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ertis Pavlodar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ertis Pavlodar's performance.

Yelimay Semey has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Yelimay Semey might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ertis Pavlodar than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ertis Pavlodar that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Yelimay Semey than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Ertis Pavlodar - Yelimay Semey Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Ertis will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Yelimay will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ertis (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Botnar V. (G) 27. Nechaev D. 5. Toleuov B. 33. Ibrahim F. 22. Stephen G. 8. Zharynbetov S. 7. Klimovich V. 98. Sedko P. 9. Omatay M. 97. Poe J. 18. Shvyrev V.	22. Pivkin N. (G) 20. Ashirbek A. 44. Tyulyubay A. 4. Zhumakhanov A. 5. Belancic M. 14. Palacio D. 23. Ilic H. 27. Berezkin E. 18. Orazov R. 77. Placca F. 7. Murtazaev R.
Substitutes
10. Agimanov T. 13. Baybosynov N. 21. Buranchiev A. 12. Karimov R. 15. Nyrkov D. 31. Rakhmetulla E. (G) 14. Raskatov V. 1. Rikhard M. (G) 6. Shimamura Y. 17. Turlybek M. 20. Usenov A.	2. Adambaev A. 17. Bakhtiyarov A. 83. Baygaliev A. 50. Miladinovic I. 16. Ndreca E. 10. Payruz Z. 99. Stojkovic V. (G) 11. Sviridov I. 1. Tsuprikov E. (G) 19. Zhaksylykov A.
Coaches
Zhumaskaliyev N.	Karpovich A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', Ashirbek A. 🟨,
26', Stephen G. ↓, Nyrkov D. ↑,
27', 1 - 0, Poe J. ⚽,
31', Orazov R. 🟨,
34', Ilic H. ↓, Bakhtiyarov A. ↑,
45', Omatay M. ↓, Shimamura Y. ↑,
45+4', Klimovich V. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
48', 1 - 1, Orazov R. ⚽,
52', 1 - 2, Bakhtiyarov A. ⚽, Palacio D. (A),
53', Bakhtiyarov A. 🟨,
61', Berezkin E. 🟨,
65', Sedko P. ↓, Agimanov T. ↑,
66', Murtazaev R. ↓, Sviridov I. ↑,
66', Placca F. ↓, Zhaksylykov A. ↑,
66', Poe J. ↓, Baybosynov N. ↑,
66', Shvyrev V. ↓, Turlybek M. ↑,
81', Palacio D. ↓, Ndreca E. ↑,
81', Orazov R. ↓, Baygaliev A. ↑,
86', 2 - 2, Agimanov T. ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 14 and 6).

Ertis is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Yelimay's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Yelimay is seen as the favorite.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Yelimay Semey	25	10	8	7	35:33	2	38
11	Ertis Pavlodar	25	6	8	11	26:34	-8	26

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ertis Pavlodar
Kazakh Premier League
09.05.26	Tobol Kostanay - Ertis Pavlodar	1:0 ✺
02.05.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Kairat	0:1 ✺
Kazakh Cup
29.04.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Kyzylzhar	1:2 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
25.04.26	Aktobe - Ertis Pavlodar	1:0 ✺
18.04.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Zhetysu	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Yelimay Semey
Kazakh Premier League
09.05.26	Yelimay Semey - Kaspiy Aktau	0:1 ✺
03.05.26	Ulytau - Yelimay Semey	1:0 ✺
Kazakh Cup
30.04.26	Aktobe - Yelimay Semey	2:1 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
26.04.26	Kairat - Yelimay Semey	2:2 ✺
18.04.26	Yelimay Semey - Astana	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LLLTT

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