Match Info

Club Friendly

Date: 2 October 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán (Sevilla)


	Sevilla		Aston Villa

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.4	2.2	Watch
	2.60	3.30	2.30
	2.85	3.3	2.25
	2.79	3.48	2.25
	2.85	3.55	2.32	Watch
	2.7	3.2	2.2
	3.02	3.63	2.39	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.79 ↓ (3.02)	3.41 ↓ (3.57)	2.27 ↑ (2.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sevilla
32.8%

Draw
26.9%

Aston Villa
40.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.9%

26.2%

42.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.1%

25.5%

44%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sevilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Aston Villa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sevilla than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Sevilla - Aston Villa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Fran (G) 6. Agoume L. 14. Bueno M. 22. Carmona J. A. 5. Castrin 3. Diaz J. 21. Ejuke C. 7. Gonzalez A. 23. Marcao 10. Peque 16. Romero I.	40. Bizot M. (G) 18. Abraham T. 26. Bogarde L. 10. Buendia E. 70. Fortes R. 17. Garnacho A. 4. Harwood-Bellis T. 53. Hemmings G. 35. Joao Gomes 8. Kamara B. 5. Mings T. (C)
Substitutes
15. Cardoso F. 26. Castillo M. 20. Correia F. 34. Diaz M. 24. Fofana Y. 27. Guillen N. 18. Guridi J. 2. Iglesias J. 25. Luchino L. (G) 33. Romero R. (G) 30. Sierra M. 37. Sow I.	47. Alysson 60. Asemota O. (G) 6. Barkley R. 78. Bloomfield T. 80. Burgess W. 71. Carroll T. 73. Jenner M. 39. Madjo B. 68. Mulley T. 14. Torres P. 29. Wan-Bissaka A. 42. Wright J. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Marcao ↓, Iglesias J. ↑,
45', 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
46', Agoume L. ↓, Fofana Y. ↑,
46', Abraham T. ↓, Madjo B. ↑,
46', Buendia E. ↓, Barkley R. ↑,
46', Kamara B. ↓, Bloomfield T. ↑,
46', Fortes R. ↓, Wan-Bissaka A. ↑,
46', Mings T. ↓, Torres P. ↑,
53', 1 - 0, Romero I. ⚽,
57', Castrin ↓, Diaz M. ↑,
66', Hemmings G. ↓, Alysson ↑,
66', Bueno M. ↓, Correia F. ↑,
66', Ejuke C. ↓, Sierra M. ↑,
66', Gonzalez A. ↓, Guridi J. ↑,
71', 1 - 1, Barkley R. ⚽,
76', Iglesias J. ↓, Sow I. ↑,
76', Peque ↓, Guillen N. ↑,
76', Romero I. ↓, Castillo M. ↑,
76', Carmona J. A. ↓, Cardoso F. ↑,
76', Joao Gomes ↓, Jenner M. ↑,
79', 1 - 2, Garnacho A. ⚽,
81', 🟨,
83', 1 - 3, Jenner M. ⚽,

Preview

In recent outings, Sevilla has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Aston Villa shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Recently, Aston Villa has had a run of games away from home.

Aston Villa is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Last Results with these Odds

Sevilla - the odds 3.02 are the expected chance of winning is 30.95%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Aston Villa - the odds 2.18 are the expected chance of winning is 42.87%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sevilla FC
Spanish LaLiga
19.09.26	Sevilla - Barcelona	1:3 ✺
16.09.26	Deportivo A Coruña - Sevilla	0:1 ✺
11.09.26	Sevilla - Valencia	1:0 ✺
06.09.26	Espanyol - Sevilla	1:1 ✺
29.08.26	Sevilla - Atlético Madrid	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LWWTL
- Aston Villa
English Premier League
19.09.26	Tottenham Hotspur - Aston Villa	2:3 ✺
English League Cup
16.09.26	Coventry City - Aston Villa	1:3 ✺
English Premier League
12.09.26	Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
08.09.26	Club Brugge - Aston Villa	2:3 ✺
English Premier League
05.09.26	Hull City - Aston Villa	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 WWLWT

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