Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 8

Date: 28 January 2026, Wednesday

Location: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona (Naples)

Referee: Turpin C. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 6, SuperSport Football Plus, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	Tring Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports 2, Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA 8, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 8
Belgium	Pickx+ Sports 4, Pickx+ Sports 4, Play Sports 1, Play Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
Brazil	HBO Max
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 6
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Europe	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, V Sport Premium
France	Canal+ Live 5
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, Now Player
Hungary	RTL+
Iceland	Viaplay
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV
Indonesia	beIN Connect, Vidio
Ireland	Virgin Media Player, Virgin Media Two
Italy	Amazon Prime Video
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1, ART Sport 1
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Canal+, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 8
Mexico	HBO Max
Mongolia	Premier Sports 1
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	SuperSport Football Plus, Supersport Maximo 1
North-macedonia	TDM Desporto
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport 1
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Poland	Canal+ Extra 5
Portugal	DAZN 2, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Prima Sport PPV 2
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Singapore	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
South-africa	Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport Premier League
South-america	Space Latin America, ViX Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime 2
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 10
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
Switzerland	Blue Sport 5, Blue Sport 5
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 1
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkey	Tabii
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 4, Virgin TV Go app
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	ON Plus, TV 360, VTV Prime
World	VIX App


	Napoli		Chelsea

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.6	2.05
	3	3.5	2.25
	3.45	3.6	2.12
	3.65	3.62	2.12
	3.69	3.6	2.08	Watch
	3.5	3.4	2
	3.66	3.66	2.13
	3.4	3.75	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.48 ↑ (2.59)	3.59 ↓ (3.82)	2.1 ↓ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Napoli
27.6%

Draw
26.7%

Chelsea
45.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.3%

25.3%

37.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37%

25.5%

37.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Napoli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Napoli's form might have worsened.

Chelsea has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Chelsea's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Napoli than the current prediction. (+9.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Napoli, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chelsea than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Chelsea, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17.6%	21.6%	60.8%

Napoli - Chelsea Predictions

Users Predictions: 50 users predict this event. Napoli will win (votes: 9 - 18%). Chelsea will win (votes: 30 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 22%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Chelsea: 46.4% – 73.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Chelsea (1.39) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 7 - 63.6%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 10 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

1X2, 1st Half - draw (2.57) (votes: 0 - 0%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Napoli (5.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Chelsea will win (12 of 16 users predict this - 75%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 19 Selected Experts predict this event. Napoli (votes: 3 - 15.8%). Chelsea (votes: 14 - 73.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 10.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Meret A. (G) 22. Di Lorenzo G. (C) 4. Buongiorno A. 5. Juan Jesus 37. Spinazzola L. 68. Lobotka S. 8. McTominay S. 17. Olivera M. 26. Vergara A. 20. Elmas E. 19. Hojlund R.	1. Sanchez R. (G) 27. Gusto M. 24. James R. (C) 29. Fofana W. 3. Cucurella M. 25. Caicedo M. 17. Andrey Santos 41. Estêvão 8. Fernandez E. 7. Neto P. 20. Joao Pedro
Substitutes
31. Beukema S. 14. Contini N. (G) 52. De Chiara E. 56. Garofalo C. 3. Gutierrez M. 9. Lukaku R. 61. Spinelli D. (G)	34. Acheampong J. 5. Badiashile B. 23. Chalobah T. 9. Delap L. 49. Garnacho A. 32. George T. 11. Gittens J. 38. Guiu M. 21. Hato J. 12. Jorgensen F. (G) 50. Merrick M. (G) 10. Palmer C.
Coaches
Conte A.	Rosenior L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
17', Juan Jesus 🟨,
19', 0 - 1, Fernandez E. (Penalty Awarded),
33', 1 - 1, Vergara A. ⚽, Olivera M. (A),
43', 2 - 1, Hojlund R. ⚽, Olivera M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Neto P. ↓, Palmer C. ↑,
59', Andrey Santos ↓, Gittens J. ↑,
59', Gusto M. ↓, Chalobah T. ↑,
61', 2 - 2, Joao Pedro ⚽, Palmer C. (A),
67', Juan Jesus ↓, Gutierrez M. ↑,
74', Estêvão ↓, Garnacho A. ↑,
75', Elmas E. 🟨,
82', Elmas E. ↓, Lukaku R. ↑,
82', Spinazzola L. ↓, Beukema S. ↑,
82', 2 - 3, Joao Pedro ⚽, Palmer C. (A),
88', Fofana W. 🟨,
90', Gittens J. ↓, Badiashile B. ↑,

Preview

In recent matches, Napoli has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Chelsea is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Chelsea may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Chelsea might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Napoli: Anguissa F. (Thigh Injury) David Neres (Ankle Injury) De Bruyne K. (Thigh Injury) Gilmour B. (Groin Injury) Marianucci L. (Inactive) Mazzocchi P. (Concussion) Milinkovic-Savic V. (Muscle Injury) Politano M. (Muscle Injury) Rrahmani A. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Chelsea: Adarabioyo T. (Muscle Injury) Colwill L. (Knee Injury) Essugo D. (Injury) Lavia R. (Thigh Injury) Mudryk M. (Suspended) Slonina G. (Inactive) Sterling R. (Inactive) Wiley C. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Chelsea: Jorgensen F. (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Napoli won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 2:2).

Including home match between the teams, Napoli won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.

Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now

Napoli: 1.31%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
27	Napoli	1	0	0	1	0:1	-1	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SSC Napoli
Italian Serie A
25.01.26	Juventus - Napoli	3:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
20.01.26	Copenhagen - Napoli	1:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
17.01.26	Napoli - Sassuolo	1:0 ✺
14.01.26	Napoli - Parma	0:0 ✺
11.01.26	Inter Milan - Napoli	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LTWTT
- Chelsea
English Premier League
25.01.26	Crystal Palace - Chelsea	1:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
21.01.26	Chelsea - Paphos	1:0 ✺
English Premier League
17.01.26	Chelsea - Brentford	2:0 ✺
English League Cup
14.01.26	Chelsea - Arsenal	2:3 ✺
English FA Cup
10.01.26	Charlton Athletic - Chelsea	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
14.03.12	Chelsea - Napoli	3:1

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