Match Info

ITALY: SERIE A - ROUND 33

Date: 3 May 2023, Wednesday

Location: Gewiss Stadium (Bergamo)

Referee: Marinelli L. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 1
Finland	CMore
Italy	Sky Sport
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	Sport TV
Serbia	Arena Sport
Slovenia	Arena Sport
Sweden	CMore Live
United-kingdom	BT Sport


	Atalanta		Spezia

	1	X	2
	1.4	5.25	7	Watch
	1.36	5.25	8
	1.37	5	8
	1.37	5	8
	1.39	5.31	8.19
	1.36	5	8.5
	1.35	5.25	8.4	Watch
	1.39	5.4	8.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 ↓ (1.38)	5.18 ↑ (4.85)	8.09 ↑ (7.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atalanta
69.7%

Draw
18.5%

Spezia
11.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.5%

19.5%

11.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.6%

18.9%

11.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atalanta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Spezia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atalanta than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Spezia than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.3%	5.1%	18.6%

Atalanta - Spezia Predictions

Users Predictions: 59 users predict this event. Atalanta will win (votes: 45 - 76.3%). Spezia will win (votes: 11 - 18.6%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 5.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atalanta: 65.4% – 87.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 7 and 17).

Atalanta has the most likely position - 7 (42.13%), project points - 65, currently - 55, not chance of relegated, a chance of qualify for ucl (18%), not chance of win league.

Spezia has the most likely position - 18 (44.01%), project points - 32, currently - 27, a good chance of relegated (53%), not chance of qualify for ucl.

This event has quality 57, importance 61, match rating 59. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Atalanta won 4.

Atalanta is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Spezia is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Atalanta is absolute favorite.

There will not play in Atalanta: Hateboer H. (Knee Injury) Muratore S. (Injury) Ruggeri M. (Injury) Vorlicky L. (Injury)

There will not play in Spezia: Beck J. (Foot Injury) Holm E. (Groin Injury) Maldini D. (Muscle Injury) Moutinho J. (Foot Injury) Zovko P. (Injury) Zurkowski S. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Atalanta: Lookman A. (Muscle Injury) Okoli C. (Injury) Soppy B. (Injury)

There are questionable in Spezia: Nzola M. (Injury)

Last 7 head-to-head matches Atalanta won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 20-8.

Including matches at home between the teams Atalanta won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 15-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atalanta
Italian Serie A
29.04.23	Torino - Atalanta	1:2 ✺
24.04.23	Atalanta - Roma	3:1 ✺
17.04.23	Fiorentina - Atalanta	1:1 ✺
08.04.23	Atalanta - Bologna	0:2 ✺
01.04.23	Cremonese - Atalanta	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WWTLW
- Spezia Calcio
Italian Serie A
28.04.23	Spezia - Monza	0:2 ✺
22.04.23	Sampdoria - Spezia	1:1 ✺
14.04.23	Spezia - Lazio	0:3 ✺
08.04.23	Fiorentina - Spezia	1:1 ✺
02.04.23	Spezia - Salernitana	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 LTLTT

Latest Head to Head

Coppa Italia
19.01.23	Atalanta - Spezia	5:2
Italian Serie A
04.01.23	Spezia - Atalanta	2:2
08.05.22	Spezia - Atalanta	1:3
20.11.21	Atalanta - Spezia	5:2
12.03.21	Atalanta - Spezia	3:1
21.11.20	Spezia - Atalanta	0:0
Club Friendly
09.08.14	Atalanta - Spezia	2:0

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