Match Info

ITALY: SERIE A - ROUND 29

Date: 8 April 2023, Saturday

Location: Stadio Artemio Franchi (Florence)

Referee: Dionisi F. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	beIN Sports
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 1
Finland	CMore, CMore Sport
France	beIN Sports Max
Hungary	Sport 1
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	Sport TV
Slovenia	Arena Sport
Sweden	CMore Fotboll, CMore Live
United-kingdom	BT Sport


	Fiorentina		Spezia

	1	X	2
	1.4	4.5	8	Watch
	1.43	4.6	7.25
	1.41	4.6	8
	1.42	4.5	7.5
	1.45	4.86	7.8
	1.4	4.5	8.5
	1.41	4.75	7.6	Watch
	1.44	4.8	7.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↓ (1.44)	4.64 ↑ (4.49)	7.76 ↑ (7.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fiorentina
67.2%

Draw
20.6%

Spezia
12.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.8%

21.1%

13.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.4%

20.3%

12.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fiorentina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Spezia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Spezia than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.8%	6.8%	11.4%

Fiorentina - Spezia Predictions

Users Predictions: Fiorentina will win (36 of 44 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 70.42% – 93.22%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 9 and 17).

Fiorentina has the most likely position - 8 (26.8%), project points - 57, currently - 40, a very small chance of relegated (<1%), a very small chance of qualify for ucl (1%), not chance of win league.

Spezia has the most likely position - 17 (34.48%), project points - 34, currently - 25, a chance of relegated (24%), a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), not chance of win league.

This event has quality 58, small importance 21, match rating 40. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Fiorentina in the last match got a series victories and it is an a fantastic form (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Recent matches Spezia is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Spezia could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Fiorentina have a series of guest games.

In this match Fiorentina is indisputable favorite.

Our prediction for today's Fiorentina to win the game is with odds 1.44.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Fiorentina won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 12-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Fiorentina won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fiorentina
Coppa Italia
05.04.23	Cremonese - Fiorentina	0:2 ✺
Italian Serie A
01.04.23	Inter Milan - Fiorentina	0:1 ✺
19.03.23	Fiorentina - Lecce	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
16.03.23	Sivasspor - Fiorentina	1:4 ✺
Italian Serie A
12.03.23	Cremonese - Fiorentina	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 WWWWW
- Spezia Calcio
Italian Serie A
02.04.23	Spezia - Salernitana	1:1 ✺
17.03.23	Sassuolo - Spezia	1:0 ✺
10.03.23	Spezia - Inter Milan	2:1 ✺
05.03.23	Spezia - Verona	0:0 ✺
26.02.23	Udinese - Spezia	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23 TLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
30.10.22	Spezia - Fiorentina	1:2
14.02.22	Spezia - Fiorentina	1:2
31.10.21	Fiorentina - Spezia	3:0
19.02.21	Fiorentina - Spezia	3:0
18.10.20	Spezia - Fiorentina	2:2

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