Match Info

Serie A - Round 18

Date: 3 January 2026, Saturday

Location: New Balance Arena (Bergamo)

Referee: Fabbri M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 3, DStv Now, SuperSport Football
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports 1, Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 1
Asia	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	DAZN
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Xsports
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play
Europe	Go3 Sport 1 Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
France	DAZN France
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 1
Haiti	Tele Haiti
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Match 4
Indonesia	ANTV, Vidio
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	DAZN Italia, NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 251, Sky Sport 4K, Sky Sport Calcio, Sky Sport Uno
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3, ART Sport 1
Kuwait	Shasha
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 1
Malaysia	Astro Football, Astro Go, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
Moldova	Setanta Sports 1
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 3
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN 2 Caribbean
Norway	VG+
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	Eleven Sports 1, Polsat Sport 2
Portugal	Sport TV6
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2, Prima TV
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi-arabia	STC TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Slovakia	Sport 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
South-africa	SuperSport Football
South-america	ESPN South
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sport Live 1
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 2
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 1
Thailand	True ID, True Premier Football 3
Tunisia	Diwan Sport
Turkey	S Sport 2, S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 1
United-kingdom	DAZN
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	CBS Sports Golazo, DAZN Espanol, DAZN USA, Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, Fox, Paramount+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	ON Football, TV 360, VTVcab


	Atalanta		Roma

	1	X	2
	2.3	3	3.5	Watch
	2.2	3.3	3.3
	2.42	2.98	3.35	Watch
	2.34	3.15	3.48	Watch
	2.25	3	3.25
	2.43	3.13	3.51
	2.36	3	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↑ (2.16)	3.08 ↓ (3.49)	3.4 ↑ (3.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atalanta
41%

Draw
31%

Roma
28.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44%

27.2%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.3%

27.6%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atalanta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Roma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atalanta than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Roma than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30.5%	37.3%	32.2%

Atalanta - Roma Predictions

Users Predictions: 57 users predict this event. Atalanta will win (votes: 16 - 28.1%). Roma will win (votes: 19 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 22 - 38.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 26% – 51.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Atalanta (votes: 6 - 40%). Roma (votes: 4 - 26.7%). Tie (votes: 5 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.25 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Carnesecchi M. (G) 42. Scalvini G. 19. Djimsiti B. 23. Kolasinac S. 77. Zappacosta D. 15. De Roon M. (C) 13. Ederson 47. Bernasconi L. 17. De Ketelaere C. 59. Zalewski N. 9. Scamacca G.	99. Svilar M. (G) 23. Mancini G. 24. Ziolkowski J. 22. Hermoso M. 19. Celik Z. 4. Cristante B. (C) 17. Kone M. 2. Rensch D. 18. Soule M. 21. Dybala P. 11. Ferguson E.
Substitutes
69. Ahanor H. 44. Brescianini M. 4. Hien I. 90. Krstovic N. 70. Maldini D. 6. Musah Y. 8. Pasalic M. 31. Rossi F. (G) 10. Samardzic L. 57. Sportiello M. (G) 7. Sulemana K.	3. Angelino 9. Dovbyk A. 92. El Shaarawy S. 87. Ghilardi D. 95. Gollini P. (G) 77. Lulli E. 76. Mirra J. 61. Pisilli N. 60. Romano A. 12. Tsimikas K. 32. Vasquez Llach D. S. (G) 43. Wesley Franca
Coaches
Palladino R.	Gasperini G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Scalvini G. ⚽,
19', De Roon M. 🟨,
26', Kolasinac S. ↓, Ahanor H. ↑,
31', Palladino R. 🟨,
43', Mancini G. 🟨,
45+3', Hermoso M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Ziolkowski J. ↓, Wesley Franca ↑,
59', Scalvini G. ↓, Hien I. ↑,
60', Zalewski N. ↓, Musah Y. ↑,
60', Ferguson E. ↓, Dovbyk A. ↑,
60', Rensch D. ↓, Tsimikas K. ↑,
66', Soule M. ↓, El Shaarawy S. ↑,
72', Scamacca G. ↓, Krstovic N. ↑,
72', Ederson ↓, Maldini D. ↑,
83', Kone M. ↓, Pisilli N. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 10 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atalanta won 4.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Atalanta will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Atalanta: Bakker M. (Knee Injury) Bellanova R. (Injury) Kossounou O. (International duty) Lookman A. (International duty)

There will not play in Roma: Bailey L. (Thigh Injury) Baldanzi T. (Illness) Bove E. (Heart Problems) El Aynaoui N. (International duty) Ndicka E. (International duty) Pellegrini Lo. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atalanta won 11 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 37:25. (average 1.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Atalanta won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 22:17. (average 2.2:1.7).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

AS Roma: 12.31% Atalanta: 0.79%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	AS Roma	5	4	1	0	14:3	11	13
11	Atalanta	5	2	0	3	5:7	-2	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atalanta
Italian Serie A
28.12.25	Atalanta - Inter Milan	0:1 ✺
21.12.25	Genoa - Atalanta	0:1 ✺
13.12.25	Atalanta - Cagliari	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
09.12.25	Atalanta - Chelsea	2:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
06.12.25	Verona - Atalanta	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 LWWWL
- AS Roma
Italian Serie A
29.12.25	Roma - Genoa	3:1 ✺
20.12.25	Juventus - Roma	2:1 ✺
15.12.25	Roma - Como	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
11.12.25	Celtic - Roma	0:3 ✺
Italian Serie A
07.12.25	Cagliari - Roma	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
12.05.25	Atalanta - Roma	2:1
02.12.24	Roma - Atalanta	0:2
12.05.24	Atalanta - Roma	2:1
07.01.24	Roma - Atalanta	1:1
24.04.23	Atalanta - Roma	3:1
18.09.22	Roma - Atalanta	0:1
05.03.22	Roma - Atalanta	1:0

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