Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 23

Date: 22 August 2025, Friday

Location: Estádio Joaquim Portugal (Minas Gerais)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, ESPN


	Athletic Club		Chapecoense

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.2	4.1	Watch
	2.15	3.1	3.2
	1.95	3.15	4.05
	2.04	3.28	4.21
	2.31	2.96	3.35	Watch
	2.25	3	3.2
	1.97	3.22	4.13	Watch
	2.45	3	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↓ (2.47)	3.11 ↓ (3.25)	3.64 ↑ (2.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Athletic Club
44%

Draw
30.2%

Chapecoense
25.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.5%

28.5%

34%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.8%

30.3%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Club has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Athletic Club's performance.

Chapecoense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Chapecoense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Club than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chapecoense than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Chapecoense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	28.6%	21.4%

Athletic Club - Chapecoense Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Athletic will win (votes: 7 - 50%). Chapecoense will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 28.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Athletic: 23.8% – 76.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletic (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Tie (votes: 4 - 44.4%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Chapecoense (1.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletic (votes: 5 - 50%). Chapecoense (votes: 1 - 10%). Tie (votes: 4 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Adriel (G) 2. Douglas Pele 13. Jhonatan Silva 4. Sidimar (C) 84. Rodrigo Gelado 14. Fabricio Isidoro 38. Sandry 7. Welinton Torrao 8. Chico Geraldes 77. Max 21. Tavares R.	1. Rafael Santos (G) 3. Eduardo Doma 25. Victor Caetano 4. Joao Paulo 2. Gabriel Inocencio 99. Rafael Carvalheira 16. Bruno Matias 37. Clar W. 10. Giovanni Augusto (C) 18. Neto Pessoa 7. Marcinho
Substitutes
44. Alex Nascimento 17. Da Cruz A. 10. David Braga 11. Ezequiel 25. Glauco (G) 1. Jefferson Luis (G) 20. Joao Miguel 55. Martinez F. 96. Matheus Guilherme 19. Neto Costa 52. Wesley Gasolina 6. Yuri	14. Bressan 31. Deivity (G) 26. Everton 76. Felipe Vieira 77. Italo 5. Jorge Jimenez 90. Mailson 48. Pedro Martins 9. Pedro Perotti 28. Romulo 70. Rubens Ricoldi
Coaches
Rojas R.	Gilmar Pozzo

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
39', Giovanni Augusto 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 4)
52', Sidimar 🟨,
53', 0 - 1, Giovanni Augusto ⚽,
58', 0 - 2, Victor Caetano ⚽, Giovanni Augusto (A),
62', Chico Geraldes ↓, Neto Costa ↑,
69', 0 - 3, Gabriel Inocencio ⚽, Neto Pessoa (A),
70', Sidimar ↓, Ezequiel ↑,
70', Fabricio Isidoro ↓, David Braga ↑,
73', Marcinho ↓, Pedro Martins ↑,
80', Neto Pessoa ↓, Pedro Perotti ↑,
80', Giovanni Augusto ↓, Rubens Ricoldi ↑,
80', 0 - 4, Pedro Perotti ⚽, Gabriel Inocencio (A),
85', Tavares R. ↓, Yuri ↑,
85', Max ↓, Da Cruz A. ↑,
85', Gabriel Inocencio ↓, Everton ↑,
85', Rafael Carvalheira ↓, Italo ↑,
89', Sandry 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 15 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A Betano).

Athletic has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Chapecoense is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Athletic might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Athletic: Edson Miranda (Inactive) Lincoln (Inactive) Marcelo Ajul (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Chapecoense: Bruno Leonardo (Yellow Cards) Eduardo Person (Inactive) Everton (Inactive) Jhonnathan (Inactive) Leo Vieira (Yellow Cards) Mancha (Inactive)

There are questionable in Chapecoense: Getulio (Injury) Giovanni Augusto (Injury) Leo Vieira (Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Athletic won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Chapecoense - the odds 2.72 are the expected chance of winning is 34.04%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Club MG
Brazilian Serie B
18.08.25	Athletic Club - Criciúma	1:1 ✺
12.08.25	CRB Maceio - Athletic Club	1:0 ✺
04.08.25	Athletic Club - Atlético Goianiense	1:1 ✺
28.07.25	Paysandu - Athletic Club	1:1 ✺
22.07.25	Athletic Club - Coritiba	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 TLTTT
- Chapecoense-SC
Brazilian Serie B
17.08.25	Chapecoense - Paysandu	2:0 ✺
08.08.25	Coritiba - Chapecoense	0:0 ✺
03.08.25	Chapecoense - CRB Maceio	3:2 ✺
27.07.25	Atlético Goianiense - Chapecoense	0:0 ✺
23.07.25	Chapecoense - Volta Redonda	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17 WTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
20.04.25	Chapecoense - Athletic Club	1:0

Upcoming Matches