Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie C - First stage - Round 9

Date: 15 June 2024, Saturday

Location: Estádio Joaquim Portugal (Minas Gerais)

Referee: Vollkopf P. (Bra)


	Athletic Club		Ferroviário Fortaleza

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.33	4.33	7.75
	1.33	4.33	8.5	Watch
	1.35	4.55	9.64
	1.35	4.56	9.64
	1.29	4.4	8.5
	1.32	4.45	8.7	Watch
	1.34	4.3	8.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↓ (1.48)	4.42 ↑ (3.75)	8.7 ↑ (6.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletic Club
68.8%

Draw
20.7%

Ferroviário Fortaleza
10.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62%

24.5%

13.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.4%

23.2%

12.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Club has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Athletic Club's performance.

Ferroviário Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Club than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferroviário Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Athletic Club - Ferroviário Fortaleza Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Glauco (G) 3. Danilo Cardoso 10. David Braga 5. Diego Fumaca (C) 50. Edson Miranda 8. Geovane 9. Jonathas 11. Villero P. 7. Welinton Torrao 2. Ynaia 6. Yuri	1. Douglas Dias (C) 11. Gabryel Martins 5. Lincoln 7. Marcelinho 8. Marciel 19. Mattheus Silva 4. Naldo 16. Renan Luis 22. Vinicius Alves 2. Wesley 27. Willian Rocha
Substitutes
23. Alason Carioca 19. Bruno Gomes 18. Caldeira R. 20. Denilson 16. Djalma 13. Douglas Pele 12. Jefferson Luis (G) 15. Marcelo Sousa 17. Nathan 22. Neto Costa 21. Rafael Conceicao 14. Victor Sallinas	6. Ernandes 32. Geaze (G) 20. Joelson 9. Kiuan 15. Ralph 10. Romarinho 28. Vinicius Paulista 21. Vitinho 17. Wilker
Coaches
Roger Silva	Kobayashi P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
2', 0 - 1, Gabryel Martins ⚽,
15', 1 - 1, Jonathas ⚽,
21', Lincoln 🟨,
22', Jonathas 🟨,
24', 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Marciel ↓, Vinicius Paulista ↑,
63', 🟨,
70', Edson Miranda 🟨,
74', Geovane ↓, Djalma ↑,
74', Ynaia ↓, Douglas Pele ↑,
75', 2 - 1, Danilo Cardoso ⚽, Douglas Pele (A),
77', Welinton Torrao ↓, Nathan ↑,
77', Jonathas ↓, Denilson ↑,
80', 3 - 1, Denilson ⚽, David Braga (A),
84', David Braga ↓, Rafael Conceicao ↑,
87', Nathan 🟨,

Preview

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: ) and 14).

Athletic is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Ferroviário is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Athletic is certain favorite.

Our prediction for today's Athletic to win the game is with odds 1.33.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Club MG
Brazilian Serie C
09.06.24	Athletic Club - Volta Redonda	3:2 ✺
03.06.24	Botafogo PB - Athletic Club	3:1 ✺
20.05.24	Athletic Club - Aparecidense	1:0 ✺
12.05.24	CS Alagoano - Athletic Club	0:5 ✺
05.05.24	Athletic Club - ABC	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WLWWW
- Ferroviário Fortaleza
Brazilian Serie C
09.06.24	Botafogo PB - Ferroviário Fortaleza	1:0 ✺
01.06.24	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Londrina	1:0 ✺
28.05.24	Floresta - Ferroviário Fortaleza	1:2 ✺
19.05.24	Ferroviário Fortaleza - ABC	0:4 ✺
06.05.24	São Bernardo - Ferroviário Fortaleza	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LWWLL

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