Match Info

BRAZIL: Copa Betano do Brasil - 1/32-finals

Date: 12 March 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estádio Joaquim Portugal (Minas Gerais)


	Athletic Club		Grêmio

	1	X	2
	5	3.4	1.75
	4.2	3.1	1.8
	4.4	3.3	1.84
	5.16	3.26	1.82
	4.86	3.23	1.82	Watch
	4.2	3.4	1.8
	4.3	3.64	1.79
	4.4	3.3	1.84
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.57 ↓ (4.57)	3.33 ↓ (3.42)	1.81 ↑ (1.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletic Club
20.4%

Draw
28%

Grêmio
51.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.4%

27.3%

52.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.2%

27%

53%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Athletic Club have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Club than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Athletic Club - Grêmio Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Diego Vitor (G) 20. Alason Carioca 10. David Braga 5. Diego Fumaca (C) 3. Edson Miranda 29. Lincoln 8. Sandry 4. Sidimar 7. Welinton Torrao 52. Wesley Gasolina 6. Yuri	12. Gabriel Grando (G) 9. Amuzu F. 22. Braithwaite M. 15. Camilo 10. Cristaldo F. 21. Jemerson 2. Joao Lucas 30. Luan Candido 7. Pavon C. 20. Villasanti M. (C) 3. Wagner Leonardo
Substitutes
22. Amorim 18. Andrey 15. Caick 13. Douglas Pele 33. Dourado 12. Eduardo Freire (G) 23. Gustavo Silva 14. Jhonatan Silva 11. Mateus Goncalves 19. Neto Costa 17. Wallisson	77. Andre Henrique 19. Arezo M. 17. Dodi 53. Gustavo Martins 34. Igor Serrote 18. Joao Pedro 25. Lucas Esteves 11. Monsalve M. 14. Nathan 99. Olivera C. 1. Tiago Volpi (G) 44. Viery

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
3', 1 - 0, David Braga ⚽,
11', 1 - 1, Braithwaite M. ⚽,
16', Braithwaite M. ↓, Arezo M. ↑,
20', 1 - 2, Joao Lucas ⚽,
38', Luan Candido 🟨,
45', Luan Candido 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Sandry ↓, Amorim ↑,
46', Cristaldo F. ↓, Viery ↑,
48', 2 - 2, Diego Fumaca ⚽,
58', Amorim 🟨,
62', Welinton Torrao ↓, Mateus Goncalves ↑,
66', Pavon C. ↓, Olivera C. ↑,
66', Villasanti M. ↓, Dodi ↑,
71', Camilo 🟨,
73', Lincoln ↓, Neto Costa ↑,
74', Edson Miranda 🟨,
82', Alason Carioca ↓, Wallisson ↑,
89', 2 - 3, Arezo M. ⚽,
90+1', 🟨,
90+1', Amuzu F. ↓, Gustavo Martins ↑,
90+3', Yuri 🟨,
90+5', 3 - 3, Joao Lucas (Own goal),
Penalties (7 - 8)
1, Wagner Leonardo (Pen),
1, David Braga (Pen),
2, Jemerson (Pen),
2, Diego Fumaca (Pen),
3, Arezo M. (Pen),
3, Yuri (Pen),
4, Olivera C. (Pen),
4, Wesley Gasolina (Pen),
5, Dodi (Pen),
5, Mateus Goncalves (Pen),
6, Camilo (Pen),
6, Neto Costa (Pen),
7, Gustavo Martins (Pen),
7, Amorim (Pen),
8, Joao Lucas (Pen),
8, Edson Miranda (Pen),

Preview

Recent matches Athletic is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Grêmio is in super shape now and in the last match got series of victories (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Grêmio could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Grêmio is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Club MG
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
08.03.25	Uberlândia - Athletic Club	0:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
25.02.25	Barcelona de Ilhéus - Athletic Club	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
21.02.25	Athletic Club - Democrata GV	1:0 ✺
16.02.25	Democrata GV - Athletic Club	0:0 ✺
12.02.25	Athletic Club - Betim	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WWWTL
- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
08.03.25	Grêmio - Internacional RS	0:2 ✺
01.03.25	Juventude - Grêmio	2:2 penalties ✺
22.02.25	Grêmio - Juventude	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
19.02.25	São Raimundo PR - Grêmio	1:2 penalties ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
15.02.25	Ypiranga - Grêmio	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LWWWW

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