Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 14

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Arena da Baixada (Curitiba)

Referee: Sampaio S. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Colombia	Win play
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Mexico	Azteca Deportes
Usa	Fanatiz


	Athletico Paranaense		Grêmio

	1	X	2
	1.76	3.6	4.5	Watch
	1.72	3.6	5
	1.82	3.45	4.25	Watch
	1.85	3.65	4.76
	1.82	3.64	4.36	Watch
	1.8	3.3	4.2
	1.86	3.56	4.46	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↓ (2.03)	3.54 ↑ (3.17)	4.5 ↑ (3.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletico Paranaense
52.4%

Draw
26.7%

Grêmio
21%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.3%

29%

25.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.3%

28.3%

26.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletico Paranaense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Athletico Paranaense's performance.

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Athletico Paranaense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Grêmio could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.3%	7.7%	0%

Athletico Paranaense - Grêmio Predictions

Users Predictions: Athletico Paranaense will win (12 of 13 users predict this - 92.31%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.83% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Santos (C) 22. Teran C. 4. Arthur Dias 37. Esquivel L. 29. Benavidez G. 27. Portilla J. 5. Felipinho 7. Mendoza S. 48. Bruninho 8. Joao Cruz 9. Viveros K.	1. Weverton (G) 2. Fabian Balbuena (C) 6. Gustavo Martins 3. Wagner Leonardo 7. Pavon C. 5. Nardoni J. 33. Perez L. 54. Pedro Gabriel 99. Enamorado J. 37. Gabriel Mec 22. Braithwaite M.
Substitutes
33. Aguirre F. 47. Chiqueti 26. Claudinho 63. Diogo Riquelme 53. Dudu Kogitzki 2. Gilberto Junior 11. Isaac 3. Leo 6. Leo Derik 21. Leozinho 1. Mycael (G) 70. Renan Peixoto	77. Andre Henrique 50. Bernardo Zortea 38. Caio Paulista 17. Dodi 12. Gabriel Grando (G) 43. Luis Eduardo 14. Marcos Rocha 19. Noriega E. 65. Riquelme 21. Tete 4. Walter Kannemann 10. Willian
Coaches
Hellmann O.	Castro L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Viveros K. 🟨,
33', Esquivel L. 🟥,
35', Joao Cruz ↓, Leo Derik ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Enamorado J. ↓, Andre Henrique ↑,
46', Gabriel Mec ↓, Riquelme ↑,
51', Nardoni J. ↓, Willian ↑,
63', Bruninho ↓, Dudu Kogitzki ↑,
64', Portilla J. ↓, Diogo Riquelme ↑,
65', Braithwaite M. ↓, Tete ↑,
72', Riquelme 🟨,
78', Hellmann O. 🟨,
84', Benavidez G. 🟨,
84', Riquelme 🟨,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: ) and 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletico PR won 2.

Athletico PR has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Grêmio is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Grêmio may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Athletico PR is the team to beat.

There will not play in Athletico PR: Luiz Gustavo (Yellow Cards) Zapelli B. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Grêmio: Arthur Melo (Thigh Injury) Carlos Vinicius (Yellow Cards) Joao Pedro (Muscle Injury) Marlon (Broken ankle) Viery (Yellow Cards) Villasanti M. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Athletico PR won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 20:28. (average 1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Athletico PR won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 15:14. (average 1.7:1.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Athletico-PR	29	14	8	7	45:34	11	50
18	Gremio	29	7	9	13	31:39	-8	30

Last Results with these Odds

Grêmio - the odds 3.58 are the expected chance of winning is 25.66%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Serie A
26.04.26	Athletico Paranaense - Vitória Salvador	3:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
23.04.26	Athletico Paranaense - Atlético Goianiense	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
19.04.26	Palmeiras - Athletico Paranaense	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Athletico Paranaense - Chapecoense	2:0 ✺
05.04.26	Atlético Mineiro - Athletico Paranaense	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 WTLWL
- Grêmio RS
Copa Sudamericana
29.04.26	Palestino - Grêmio	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
26.04.26	Grêmio - Coritiba	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
21.04.26	Grêmio - Confiança	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
18.04.26	Cruzeiro - Grêmio	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
14.04.26	Grêmio - Deportivo Riestra	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
04.08.24	Athletico Paranaense - Grêmio	0:2
17.04.24	Grêmio - Athletico Paranaense	2:0
18.10.23	Grêmio - Athletico Paranaense	1:2
27.05.23	Athletico Paranaense - Grêmio	1:2
26.09.21	Athletico Paranaense - Grêmio	4:2
13.06.21	Grêmio - Athletico Paranaense	0:1
21.02.21	Grêmio - Athletico Paranaense	1:0

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