Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 12

Date: 19 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Allianz Parque (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Fernandes de Lima F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Colombia	Win Sports
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2
Israel	Sport 4
North-central-america	Flow Sports 1 Caribbean
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 2, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 2
United-arab-emirates	Dubai Sports 1
Usa	Fanatiz
World	Onefootball


	Palmeiras		Athletico Paranaense

	1	X	2
	1.53	3.75	6.5	Watch
	1.58	3.95	5.4	Watch
	1.6	4.08	6.16
	1.57	4.03	5.92	Watch
	1.57	3.75	5.5
	1.61	3.95	6.02	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↑ (1.5)	3.92 ↑ (3.92)	5.92 ↓ (6.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Palmeiras
59.9%

Draw
24.1%

Athletico Paranaense
16%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.3%

23.5%

15.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.3%

22.4%

14.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Palmeiras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Athletico Paranaense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	6.2%	6.2%

Palmeiras - Athletico Paranaense Predictions

Users Predictions: Palmeiras will win (13 of 15 users predict this - 86.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.47% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Carlos Miguel (G) 4. Giay A. 15. Gomez G. (C) 26. Murilo 56. Arthur Gabriel 40. Allan Elias 32. Martinez E. 8. Andreas Pereira 11. Arias J. 42. Lopez J. 19. Sosa R.	23. Santos (C) 22. Teran C. 33. Aguirre F. 4. Arthur Dias 16. Jadson 27. Portilla J. 14. Luiz Gustavo 37. Esquivel L. 7. Mendoza S. 53. Dudu Kogitzki 9. Viveros K.
Substitutes
43. Benedetti 3. Bruno Fuchs 7. Felipe Anderson 12. Khellven 48. Larson 30. Lucas Evangelista 31. Luighi 50. Luis Pacheco 14. Marcelo Lomba (G) 18. Mauricio 37. Riquelme Fillipi 9. Vitor Roque	47. Chiqueti 26. Claudinho 63. Diogo Riquelme 5. Felipinho 11. Isaac 8. Joao Cruz 3. Leo 6. Leo Derik 21. Leozinho 1. Mycael (G) 70. Renan Peixoto 10. Zapelli B.
Coaches
Martins J.	Hellmann O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', 1 - 0, Gomez G. ⚽,
23', Portilla J. 🟨,
30', Murilo 🟨,
42', Jadson 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
47', Murilo 🟨,
51', Lopez J. ↓, Bruno Fuchs ↑,
53', Jadson ↓, Joao Cruz ↑,
56', Joao Cruz 🟨,
60', Portilla J. ↓, Zapelli B. ↑,
60', Dudu Kogitzki ↓, Chiqueti ↑,
63', Esquivel L. 🟨,
71', Sosa R. 🟨,
72', Andreas Pereira ↓, Lucas Evangelista ↑,
80', Aguirre F. ↓, Leo ↑,
80', Luiz Gustavo ↓, Renan Peixoto ↑,
83', Sosa R. ↓, Vitor Roque ↑,
83', Allan Elias ↓, Benedetti ↑,
83', Arias J. ↓, Felipe Anderson ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 3.

Palmeiras is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Athletico PR has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Athletico PR may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Palmeiras is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Palmeiras: Jefte (Inactive) Marlon Freitas (Yellow Cards) Paulinho (Leg Injury) Piquerez J. (Injury)

There will not play in Athletico PR: Teran C. (Injury)

There are questionable in Palmeiras: Vitor Roque (Inactive)

There are questionable in Athletico PR: Chiqueti (Illness)

We predict that Palmeiras will win today's game, with odds of 1.59.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 10 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 27:19. (average 1.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Palmeiras won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:8. (average 1.3:0.8).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Palmeiras: 36.7% Athletico-PR: 0.33%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Palmeiras	30	18	9	3	52:22	30	63
4	Athletico-PR	29	14	8	7	45:34	11	50

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Palmeiras
Copa Libertadores
16.04.26	Palmeiras - Sporting Cristal	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
12.04.26	Corinthians - Palmeiras	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
08.04.26	Junior Barranquilla - Palmeiras	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
05.04.26	Bahia - Palmeiras	1:2 ✺
02.04.26	Palmeiras - Grêmio	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WTTWW
- Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Serie A
12.04.26	Athletico Paranaense - Chapecoense	2:0 ✺
05.04.26	Atlético Mineiro - Athletico Paranaense	2:1 ✺
01.04.26	Bahia - Athletico Paranaense	3:0 ✺
29.03.26	Athletico Paranaense - Botafogo RJ	4:1 ✺
22.03.26	Athletico Paranaense - Coritiba	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
01.09.24	Athletico Paranaense - Palmeiras	0:2
12.05.24	Palmeiras - Athletico Paranaense	0:2
04.11.23	Palmeiras - Athletico Paranaense	1:0
02.07.23	Athletico Paranaense - Palmeiras	2:2
25.10.22	Athletico Paranaense - Palmeiras	1:3
Copa Libertadores
06.09.22	Palmeiras - Athletico Paranaense	2:2
30.08.22	Athletico Paranaense - Palmeiras	1:0

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