Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 21

Date: 24 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Alfredo Jaconi (Caxias do Sul)

Referee: Rodrigues F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Caze TV, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Record, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Israel	Sport 1
Mexico	Fanatiz
Portugal	Canal 11
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Usa	Fanatiz


	Juventude		Botafogo RJ

	1	X	2
	3.9	3.3	2	Watch
	4	3.25	2
	3.7	3.35	1.98
	3.95	3.44	2.06
	3.31	2.95	2.37	Watch
	4.4	3.25	1.83
	3.83	3.43	2.05	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.87 ↓ (4.73)	3.28 ↓ (3.65)	2.04 ↑ (1.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Juventude
24.5%

Draw
28.9%

Botafogo RJ
46.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.8%

25.6%

54.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.5%

25.3%

55.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Juventude has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Botafogo RJ has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Botafogo RJ might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Juventude than the current prediction. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botafogo RJ than the current prediction. (+8.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Botafogo RJ could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	41.7%	33.3%

Juventude - Botafogo RJ Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Juventude will win (votes: 3 - 25%). Botafogo will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 41.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 13.8% – 69.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Juventude (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Botafogo (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Juventude (1.77) (votes: 7 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

DC - Juventude (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Juventude (votes: 10 - 66.7%). Botafogo (votes: 3 - 20%). Tie (votes: 2 - 13.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Jandrei (G) 93. Reginaldo 4. Angel W. 3. Luan Freitas 28. Alan Ruschel 27. Batalla E. 16. Jadson (C) 95. Caique Goncalves 44. Mandaca 10. Nene 19. Gabriel Taliari	22. Neto (G) 2. Vitinho 20. Barboza A. 57. David Ricardo 13. Alex Telles 28. Newton 17. Marlon Freitas (C) 47. Jeffinho 30. Correa J. 8. Montoro A. 98. Arthur Cabral
Substitutes
43. Bernardo 97. Enio 7. Gabriel Veron 8. Giraldo D. 25. Guruceaga G. (G) 32. Igor Formiga 22. Marcelo Hermes 47. Marcos Paulo 98. Marlon 17. Matheus Babi 72. Peixoto 99. Rafael Bilu	25. Allan 35. Danilo 39. Gonzalo Mastriani 48. Huguinho 21. Marcal 11. Matheus Martins 16. Nathan Fernandes 4. Ponte M. 9. Ramos C. 1. Raul Steffens (G) 23. Rodriguez S. 10. Savarino J.
Coaches
Thiago Carpini	Ancelotti D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
6', Newton 🟨,
30', 1 - 0, Batalla E. ⚽, Nene (A),
39', 1 - 1, Alex Telles (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Alan Ruschel ↓, Marcelo Hermes ↑,
46', Nene ↓, Gabriel Veron ↑,
52', Barboza A. 🟨,
56', Jeffinho ↓, Matheus Martins ↑,
56', Alex Telles ↓, Marcal ↑,
56', Newton ↓, Danilo ↑,
67', Correa J. ↓, Ramos C. ↑,
71', Batalla E. ↓, Rafael Bilu ↑,
76', Caique Goncalves ↓, Giraldo D. ↑,
80', Montoro A. ↓, Rodriguez S. ↑,
83', 1 - 2, Ramos C. ⚽, Arthur Cabral (A),
90', Mandaca ↓, Matheus Babi ↑,
90+2', 1 - 3, Ramos C. ⚽, Rodriguez S. (A),

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Juventude won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Botafogo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Botafogo is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Juventude: Abner (Yellow Cards) Ewerthon (Muscle Injury) Gilberto (Injury) Lucas Fernandes (Muscle Injury) Marcos Paulo (Muscle Injury) Nata (Inactive) Rodrigo Sam (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Botafogo: Bastos (Knee Injury) Cuiabano (Ankle Injury) Kaio (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Juventude won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:14. (average 1.4:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Juventude won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:5. (average 2.3:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Juventude
Brazilian Serie A
20.08.25	Juventude - Vasco da Gama	2:0 ✺
16.08.25	Vitória Salvador - Juventude	2:2 ✺
11.08.25	Juventude - Corinthians	2:1 ✺
04.08.25	Santos - Juventude	3:1 ✺
27.07.25	Bahia - Juventude	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 WTWLL
- Botafogo RJ
Copa Libertadores
21.08.25	LDU Quito - Botafogo RJ	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
17.08.25	Botafogo RJ - Palmeiras	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.08.25	Botafogo RJ - LDU Quito	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
09.08.25	Fortaleza - Botafogo RJ	0:5 ✺
Copa do Brasil
06.08.25	Red Bull Bragantino - Botafogo RJ	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
05.04.25	Botafogo RJ - Juventude	2:0
11.08.24	Juventude - Botafogo RJ	3:2
21.04.24	Botafogo RJ - Juventude	5:1
21.08.22	Juventude - Botafogo RJ	2:2
01.05.22	Botafogo RJ - Juventude	1:1
Copa do Brasil
11.04.19	Juventude - Botafogo RJ	2:1
04.04.19	Botafogo RJ - Juventude	1:1

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