Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Clausura - Round 9

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Guaycura (La Paz)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	AYM Sports
Usa	Aym Sports


	Atlético La Paz		Tlaxcala

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.9	3.5	3.25
	1.92	3.5	3.45	Watch
	1.98	3.6	3.72
	2.07	3.52	3.39	Watch
	1.95	3.3	3.2
	1.91	3.42	3.53	Watch
	2	3.6	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↓ (2.03)	3.49 ↓ (3.89)	3.37 ↑ (3.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético La Paz
46.6%

Draw
26.2%

Tlaxcala
27.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46%

24%

29.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.9%

25%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético La Paz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Tlaxcala has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético La Paz than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tlaxcala than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Atlético La Paz - Tlaxcala Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético La Paz (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Alcala G. (G) 13. Alaffita Garcia E. J. 92. Alvarez D. 10. Barragan M. (C) 27. Garcia G. 25. Illescas F. 12. Millan O. 21. Robles C. 15. Torres H. 7. Vazquez I. 28. Zurita Jimenez U.	29. Espinoza G. (G) 19. Castaneda S. 17. Castillo E. 9. Christian 10. Figueroa F. 2. Gonzalez P. (C) 1. Govea I. 7. Hernandez E. 6. Iniestra A. 3. Santos E. 31. Silva J.
Substitutes
22. Daccarett J. 16. Del Aguila Y. 23. Estrada J. (G) 14. Galindo A. 6. Hernandez D. 19. Jaimes U. 11. Renteria R. 30. Robles A. 8. Soto A. 2. Vazquez S.	26. Blanco J. 18. Buganza F. 12. Lazaro J. 33. Martinez D. 13. Mendoza H. (G) 24. Robles E. 11. Salomon O. 20. Sanchez A. 5. Sancho J. 21. Zaragoza A.
Coaches
Castillo H.	Gustavo Leal

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Zurita Jimenez U. ⚽, Illescas F. (A),
16', Christian 🟨,
19', Alvarez D. 🟨,
23', Hernandez E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
47', 2 - 0, Barragan M. ⚽,
50', Gonzalez P. 🟨,
60', Alvarez D. ↓, Renteria R. ↑,
62', Millan O. 🟨,
63', Govea I. 🟨,
69', Castillo E. ↓, Martinez D. ↑,
79', Hernandez E. ↓, Robles E. ↑,
79', Figueroa F. ↓, Salomon O. ↑,
82', Illescas F. ↓, Robles A. ↑,
82', Alaffita Garcia E. J. ↓, Soto A. ↑,
82', Millan O. ↓, Galindo A. ↑,
84', Santos E. ↓, Buganza F. ↑,
84', Iniestra A. ↓, Blanco J. ↑,
88', Barragan M. ↓, Jaimes U. ↑,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético La Paz won 3.

Atlético La Paz has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Tlaxcala is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Atlético La Paz may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Atlético La Paz might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Atlético La Paz won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:12. (average 2.1:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlético La Paz won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:6. (average 2.3:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Atletico La Paz	11	6	2	3	24:13	11	20
12	Tlaxcala	11	3	3	5	19:23	-4	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético La Paz
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
04.03.26	Atlético La Paz - Leones Negros UdeG	3:0 ✺
28.02.26	Atlético Morelia - Atlético La Paz	1:0 ✺
07.02.26	Dorados - Atlético La Paz	2:2 ✺
30.01.26	Atlético La Paz - Venados	1:0 ✺
23.01.26	Mineros de Zacatecas - Atlético La Paz	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 WLTWT
- Tlaxcala FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
01.03.26	Tlaxcala - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:0 ✺
13.02.26	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Tlaxcala	0:0 ✺
08.02.26	Tlaxcala - Leones Negros UdeG	5:2 ✺
30.01.26	Correcaminos UAT - Tlaxcala	2:1 ✺
24.01.26	Tlaxcala - Irapuato	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
28.09.25	Tlaxcala - Atlético La Paz	3:3
10.01.25	Atlético La Paz - Tlaxcala	4:4
27.07.24	Tlaxcala - Atlético La Paz	0:2
16.02.24	Tlaxcala - Atlético La Paz	2:3
26.09.23	Atlético La Paz - Tlaxcala	1:0
04.04.23	Tlaxcala - Atlético La Paz	1:0
09.08.22	Atlético La Paz - Tlaxcala	2:2

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