Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 5

Date: 11 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: MRV Arena (Belo Horizonte)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Flow Eventos, Flow Sports
Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2
Mexico	Azteca Deportes, Fanatiz
North-central-america	Flow Sports 1 Caribbean
Paraguay	Flow Eventos
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Uruguay	Flow
Usa	Fanatiz
World	Onefootball


	Atlético Mineiro		Internacional RS

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.3	3.25	Watch
	2	3.5	3.75
	2.28	3.25	3.05
	2.33	3.42	3.27
	1.45	4.30	7.17	Watch
	2.2	3.2	3
	2.29	3.39	3.21	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↑ (1.93)	3.48 ↑ (3.46)	3.81 ↑ (3.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Mineiro
46.3%

Draw
28.1%

Internacional RS
25.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.4%

27%

24.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

26.8%

24.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Internacional RS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Internacional RS than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36.4%	18.2%	45.5%

Atlético Mineiro - Internacional RS Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Atlético MG will win (votes: 8 - 38.1%). Internacional will win (votes: 10 - 47.6%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Internacional: 26.2% – 69%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético MG (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Internacional (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Everson (G) 3. Roman I. 4. Ruan Tressoldi 14. Vitor Hugo 16. Lodi R. 21. Franco A. 30. Victor Hugo 28. Cuello 7. Hulk (C) 10. Gustavo Scarpa 9. Cassierra M.	1. Rochet S. (G) 15. Bruno Gomes 4. Torres F. 41. Victor Gabriel 26. Bernabei A. 27. Paulinho Paula 14. Rodriguez A. 35. Aguirre B. 10. Alan Patrick (C) 7. Carbonero J. 9. Alerrandro
Substitutes
6. Alonso J. 11. Bernard 92. Dudu 1. Gabriel Delfim (G) 17. Igor Gomes 13. Lyanco 27. Minda A. 36. Pascini K. 20. Patrick Silva 25. Perez T. 23. Preciado A. 19. Reinier	31. Allex 12. Anthoni (G) 19. Borre R. 8. Bruno Henrique 17. Bruno Tabata 18. Juninho 11. Kayky 6. Matheus Bahia 25. Mercado G. 16. Ronaldo 29. Thiago Maia 28. Vitinho
Coaches
Dominguez E.	Pezzolano P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Cuello ⚽, Hulk (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Bruno Gomes ↓, Bruno Tabata ↑,
50', Pezzolano P. 🟨,
58', Gustavo Scarpa ↓, Minda A. ↑,
67', Alerrandro ↓, Borre R. ↑,
68', Carbonero J. ↓, Kayky ↑,
70', Cassierra M. ↓, Reinier ↑,
70', Ruan Tressoldi ↓, Preciado A. ↑,
75', Cuello ↓, Dudu ↑,
75', Victor Hugo ↓, Perez T. ↑,
79', Ruan Tressoldi 🟨,
84', Paulinho Paula ↓, Bruno Henrique ↑,
84', Alan Patrick ↓, Vitinho ↑,
90+3', Vitor Hugo 🟨,
90+6', Bernabei A. 🟨,
90+7', Victor Gabriel 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético MG won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Recently, Atlético MG has had a series of away games.

Atlético MG could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Atlético MG: Alexsander (Injury) Natanael (Red Card)

There are questionable in Internacional: Arhin B. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atlético MG won 11 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 27:21. (average 1.4:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlético MG won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:12. (average 1.6:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Atletico-MG	29	12	8	9	39:34	5	44
17	Internacional	29	7	10	12	32:37	-5	31

Last Results with these Odds

Atlético Mineiro - the odds 1.93 are the expected chance of winning is 48.44%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Mineiro
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
08.03.26	Cruzeiro - Atlético Mineiro	1:0 ✺
01.03.26	América Mineiro - Atlético Mineiro	0:1 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
25.02.26	Grêmio - Atlético Mineiro	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
22.02.26	Atlético Mineiro - América Mineiro	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	Itabirito - Atlético Mineiro	2:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LWLTW
- Internacional RS
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
08.03.26	Internacional RS - Grêmio	1:1 ✺
01.03.26	Grêmio - Internacional RS	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
25.02.26	Remo - Internacional RS	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
21.02.26	Internacional RS - Ypiranga	4:0 ✺
15.02.26	Ypiranga - Internacional RS	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 TLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
02.11.25	Internacional RS - Atlético Mineiro	0:0
12.06.25	Atlético Mineiro - Internacional RS	2:0
26.10.24	Atlético Mineiro - Internacional RS	1:3
26.06.24	Internacional RS - Atlético Mineiro	1:2
30.09.23	Internacional RS - Atlético Mineiro	0:2
13.05.23	Atlético Mineiro - Internacional RS	2:0
31.07.22	Internacional RS - Atlético Mineiro	3:0

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