Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 38

Date: 7 December 2025, Sunday

Location: MRV Arena (Belo Horizonte)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Mexico	Fanatiz
Usa	Fanatiz


	Atlético Mineiro		Vasco da Gama

	1	X	2
	1.56	3.9	5.75	Watch
	1.58	3.95	5.4
	1.62	3.9	5.84
	1.59	3.98	5.74	Watch
	1.6	3.75	5
	1.63	4.02	5.61	Watch
	1.61	3.8	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↓ (1.72)	3.9 ↑ (3.84)	5.62 ↑ (4.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Mineiro
59%

Draw
24.2%

Vasco da Gama
16.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55%

24.6%

20.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.4%

24.4%

20.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Vasco da Gama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	11.1%	44.4%

Atlético Mineiro - Vasco da Gama Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Atlético MG will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Vasco will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético MG: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético MG (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - Vasco (1.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético MG (votes: 1 - 50%). Vasco (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Everson (G) 26. Renzo Saravia 14. Vitor Hugo 6. Alonso J. (C) 13. Guilherme Arana 21. Franco A. 11. Bernard 17. Igor Gomes 33. Rony 7. Hulk 92. Dudu	13. Daniel Fuzato (G) 3. Tche Tche 29. Lucas Oliveira 43. Lucas Freitas 12. Victor Luis 25. Hugo Moura 85. Mateus Carvalho 18. Paulinho Paula 9. Matheus Franca 7. David 99. Vegetti P. (C)
Substitutes
5. Alexsander 42. Cadu 38. Caio Paulista 28. Cuello 1. Gabriel Delfim (G) 25. Gabriel Menino 10. Gustavo Scarpa 2. Natanael 18. Reinier 23. Roman I. 16. Ruan Tressoldi	36. Allan Vitor (G) 88. Cauan Barros 15. Garre B. 19. GB 11. Gomez C. A. 14. Guilherme Estrella 66. Leandrinho 90. Minete D. 37. Pablo (G) 30. Robert Renan 2. Rodriguez J. 23. Thiago Mendes
Coaches
Sampaoli J.	Diniz F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
18', 1 - 0, Alonso J. ⚽, Rony (A),
31', Hugo Moura 🟥,
32', 2 - 0, Hulk ⚽,
35', Vegetti P. ↓, Leandrinho ↑,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
49', 3 - 0, Dudu ⚽, Hulk (A),
56', Rony ↓, Gustavo Scarpa ↑,
69', 4 - 0, Dudu ⚽, Igor Gomes (A),
70', Bernard ↓, Alexsander ↑,
70', Renzo Saravia ↓, Gabriel Menino ↑,
70', Vitor Hugo ↓, Ruan Tressoldi ↑,
72', Matheus Franca ↓, Guilherme Estrella ↑,
72', Tche Tche ↓, GB ↑,
72', David ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,
75', 5 - 0, Victor Luis (Own goal),
78', Dudu ↓, Cuello ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 13 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 12 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético MG won 2.

Atlético MG has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Vasco is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Vasco may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Atlético MG is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Atlético MG: Caio Maia (Knee Injury) Junior Santos (Hip Injury) Lyanco (Achilles Tendon Injury) Patrick Silva (Injury)

There will not play in Vasco: Adson (Broken Leg) Cuesta C. (Yellow Cards) Garre B. (Pelvis Injury) Jair (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Atlético MG: Cuello (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Vasco: Lucas Piton (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atlético MG won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 27:25. (average 1.4:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlético MG won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:9. (average 1.8:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Atlético Mineiro - the odds 1.72 are the expected chance of winning is 54.96%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Vasco da Gama - the odds 4.63 are the expected chance of winning is 20.42%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Mineiro
Brazilian Serie A
03.12.25	Atlético Mineiro - Palmeiras	0:3 ✺
30.11.25	Fortaleza - Atlético Mineiro	1:0 ✺
25.11.25	Atlético Mineiro - Flamengo	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
22.11.25	Lanús - Atlético Mineiro	1:0 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
16.11.25	Red Bull Bragantino - Atlético Mineiro	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLTLL
- Vasco da Gama
Brazilian Serie A
02.12.25	Vasco da Gama - Mirassol	0:2 ✺
28.11.25	Vasco da Gama - Internacional RS	5:1 ✺
23.11.25	Bahia - Vasco da Gama	1:0 ✺
19.11.25	Grêmio - Vasco da Gama	2:0 ✺
08.11.25	Vasco da Gama - Juventude	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
10.08.25	Vasco da Gama - Atlético Mineiro	1:1
04.12.24	Vasco da Gama - Atlético Mineiro	2:0
Copa do Brasil
19.10.24	Vasco da Gama - Atlético Mineiro	1:1
02.10.24	Atlético Mineiro - Vasco da Gama	2:1
Brazilian Serie A
21.07.24	Atlético Mineiro - Vasco da Gama	2:0
20.08.23	Vasco da Gama - Atlético Mineiro	1:0
15.04.23	Atlético Mineiro - Vasco da Gama	1:2

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