Match Info

LPF - Clausura - Round 11

Date: 6 October 2025, Monday


	Atlético Nacional		Alianza Panama

	1	X	2
	3.15	3.25	2.05
	3.05	3.44	2.21
	5.80	4.05	1.52	Watch
	3.19	3.22	2.11
	2.82	2.78	2.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.6 ↑ (2.84)	3.35 ↑ (2.79)	2.08 ↓ (2.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Nacional
26.3%

Draw
28.3%

Alianza Panama
45.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32%

32.6%

35.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.4%

33%

35%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Atlético Nacional's form might have worsened.

Alianza Panama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alianza Panama's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Nacional than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Atlético Nacional, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza Panama than the current prediction. (-10.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alianza Panama, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Atlético Nacional - Alianza Panama Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Alianza will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Murillo G. (G) 25. Rivas J. 5. Vega M. 53. Diaz S. 20. Barrera J. 21. de Jesus Menchaca Alarcon Y. 27. Barria J. 22. Diaz S. 7. Garces A. 9. Henriquez M. (C) 11. Rivera J.	1. Gonzalez J. (G) 18. Perdomo R. 4. Merrit Y. 2. Machado A. (C) 12. Spencer D. 14. Berguido R. 16. Mitre R. 19. Diaz M. 22. Rodriguez M. 17. Asprilla J. 11. Verley R.
Substitutes
1. Almengor D. (G) 17. Corpas A. 8. De Gracia R. 3. Moreno G. 12. Moreno S. 4. Pinzon J. 19. P. Perez 10. Riquelme M. 15. Rodriguez C. 23. Valencia A.	5. Acosta L. 28. Alvarado J. 45. Campos O. 10. Diaz A. 9. Espinoza I. 15. Galvez A. 7. Guardia H. 30. Melgar K. (G) 3. Ortega Y. 6. Wright D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
8', 0 - 1, Verley R. ⚽,
31', 0 - 2, Verley R. ⚽,
33', Rivas J. 🟨,
34', 1 - 2, Diaz S. ⚽,
41', Merrit Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Rivas J. ↓, Valencia A. ↑,
46', Merrit Y. ↓, Diaz A. ↑,
51', Rodriguez M. 🟨,
65', de Jesus Menchaca Alarcon Y. ↓, P. Perez ↑,
65', Garces A. ↓, Moreno S. ↑,
66', Diaz M. ↓, Galvez A. ↑,
66', Berguido R. ↓, Wright D. ↑,
74', 2 - 2, Mitre R. (Own goal),
88', 2 - 3, Verley R. ⚽,
90+5', 🟨,

Preview

Recent form of Atlético Nacional has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Alianza is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Alianza might have a minor edge in this game.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Nacional Panama
Liga Panamena de Futbol
28.09.25	Atlético Nacional - Tauro	2:1 ✺
21.09.25	Atlético Nacional - Plaza Amador	2:5 ✺
14.09.25	Sporting San Miguelito - Atlético Nacional	1:1 ✺
06.09.25	Árabe Unido - Atlético Nacional	2:0 ✺
31.08.25	UMECIT - Atlético Nacional	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WLTLL
- Alianza Panama FC
Liga Panamena de Futbol
27.09.25	Alianza Panama - Herrera	2:1 ✺
20.09.25	Deportivo Universitario - Alianza Panama	0:0 ✺
15.09.25	Alianza Panama - San Francisco	1:1 ✺
06.09.25	Alianza Panama - Veraguas	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Independiente de la Chorrera - Alianza Panama	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 WTTWT

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