Match Info

URUGUAY: Primera Division - Clausura - Round 12

Date: 13 November 2024, Wednesday

Location: Parque Capurro (Montevideo)

Referee: Ostojich E. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica
Uruguay	VTV+
Venezuela	Inter
World	Disney+, Fanatiz


	Atletico Fenix Montevideo		Nacional Montevideo

	1	X	2
	9.5	5.25	1.33	Watch
	8.5	4.8	1.31
	9	5	1.3
	10.24	5.27	1.32
	9.29	4.78	1.34	Watch
	10	4.8	1.25
	9.75	4.99	1.3	Watch
	9	5	1.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	9.41 ↑ (7.17)	4.99 ↑ (4.4)	1.31 ↓ (1.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atletico Fenix Montevideo
9.9%

Draw
18.7%

Nacional Montevideo
71.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

12.9%

21.1%

66%

Our Initial ML Estimation

12.5%

20.4%

68.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atletico Fenix Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Nacional Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Nacional Montevideo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atletico Fenix Montevideo than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional Montevideo than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	0%	85.7%

Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: Nacional Montevideo will win (18 of 20 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.85% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Marquez E. (G) 13. Pereira G. 4. Perg M. 22. Da Silveira A. 24. Alvez J. 5. Schetino A. (C) 21. Viera S. 14. Alfaro A. 27. Cachi M. 26. de Marco S. 8. Breno Caetano	12. Mejia L. (G) 14. Lozano L. 4. Coates S. 23. Polenta D. (C) 11. Baez Corradi G. 26. Sanabria L. 8. Oliva C. 7. Galeano A. 70. Lopez N. 16. Castro A. 29. Santander F.
Substitutes
54. Cabrera M. 17. Cortelezzi S. 7. Fernandez W. 29. Franca S. 16. Guisolfo B. 19. Juambeltz M. 18. Perez A. 33. Requena A. (G) 28. Rodriguez F. 6. Scotto S.	33. Chagas Rodrigo 76. Herazo D. 17. Mereles E. 10. Pereyra M. 24. Petit G. 18. Recoba J. 77. Rodriguez N. 25. Suarez I. (G) 2. Velazquez E. 22. Zabala D.
Coaches
Vigneri N.	Lasarte M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
8', 0 - 1, Lopez N. ⚽,
16', de Marco S. ↓, Juambeltz M. ↑,
28', 0 - 2, Lopez N. (Pen),
32', Schetino A. 🟨,
36', Sanabria L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 4)
46', Lopez N. ↓, Recoba J. ↑,
46', Alfaro A. ↓, Cortelezzi S. ↑,
54', Santander F. ↓, Herazo D. ↑,
57', Pereira G. ↓, Rodriguez F. ↑,
61', 0 - 3, Herazo D. ⚽,
63', Recoba J. 🟨,
64', Castro A. ↓, Pereyra M. ↑,
64', Sanabria L. ↓, Rodriguez N. ↑,
66', Breno Caetano ↓, Perez A. ↑,
67', Schetino A. ↓, Guisolfo B. ↑,
70', Baez Corradi G. 🟨,
72', Galeano A. ↓, Zabala D. ↑,
75', 0 - 4, Herazo D. ⚽,
83', 0 - 5, Recoba J. ⚽,
84', 0 - 6, Zabala D. ⚽,

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
10.11.24	Defensor Sporting - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	1:0 ✺
03.11.24	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Racing Montevideo	0:2 ✺
20.10.24	Montevideo Wanderers - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	1:2 ✺
17.10.24	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Cerro	1:3 ✺
11.10.24	Liverpool Montevideo - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 LLWLW
- Nacional Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
08.11.24	Racing Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	0:2 ✺
02.11.24	Nacional Montevideo - Cerro	2:0 ✺
Uruguay Copa
29.10.24	Nacional Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	4:0 ✺
24.10.24	Nacional Montevideo - Durazno	4:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
20.10.24	Rampla Juniors - Nacional Montevideo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
10.05.24	Nacional Montevideo - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	1:4
20.11.23	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	1:1
15.07.23	Nacional Montevideo - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	0:1
14.04.23	Nacional Montevideo - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	4:0
01.10.22	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	1:1
09.05.22	Nacional Montevideo - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	1:0
10.10.21	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	1:2

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