Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 10 April 2024, Wednesday

Location: Metropolitano Stadium (Madrid)

Referee: Guida M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Bulgaria	Ring
Croatia	Arena Sport
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4
Denmark	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Urheilu
France	beIN Sports
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hungary	Sport 1
Italy	Sky Sport, Sky Sport Uno
Romania	Digi Sport 2, Prima Sport 2
Serbia	Arena Sport
Turkey	beIN Sports 4
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Atlético Madrid		Borussia Dortmund

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.8	4.2
	1.78	3.7	4.4
	1.82	3.9	4.3	Watch
	1.83	3.81	4.52
	1.83	3.8	4.51
	1.8	3.75	4.33
	1.86	3.9	4.52
	1.81	3.9	4.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↑ (1.8)	3.82 ↑ (3.7)	4.39 ↓ (4.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Madrid
52.9%

Draw
25.2%

Borussia Dortmund
21.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.9%

25.8%

21.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.9%

29.2%

18.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Atlético Madrid have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Borussia Dortmund has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Atlético Madrid, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (-3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.4%	14.4%	7.2%

Atlético Madrid - Borussia Dortmund Predictions

Users Predictions: Atlético Madrid will win (87 of 111 users predict this - 78.38%).
Confidence interval (95%): 70.72% – 86.04%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Oblak J. (G) 20. Witsel A. 2. Gimenez J. M. 3. Azpilicueta C. 16. Molina N. 14. Llorente M. 6. Koke (C) 5. de Paul R. 12. Lino S. 19. Morata A. 7. Griezmann A.	1. Kobel G. (G) 26. Ryerson J. 15. Hummels M. 4. Schlotterbeck N. 22. Maatsen I. 20. Sabitzer M. 23. Can E. (C) 10. Sancho J. 8. Nmecha F. 27. Adeyemi K. 14. Fullkrug N.
Substitutes
24. Barrios P. 10. Correa A. 30. El Jebari S. 4. Gabriel Paulista 31. Gomis A. (G) 23. Mandava R. 1. Moldovan H. (G) 8. Niguez S. 17. Riquelme R. 15. Savic S. 18. Vermeeren A.	19. Brandt J. 43. Bynoe-Gittens J. 16. Duranville J. 9. Haller S. 35. Lotka M. (G) 33. Meyer A. (G) 18. Moukoko Y. 6. Ozcan S. 11. Reus M. 25. Sule N. 17. Wolf M.
Coaches
Simeone D.	Terzic E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, de Paul R. ⚽,
24', Can E. 🟨,
27', Lino S. 🟨,
28', Llorente M. 🟨,
32', 2 - 0, Lino S. ⚽, Griezmann A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Nmecha F. ↓, Brandt J. ↑,
53', Maatsen I. 🟨,
60', Fullkrug N. ↓, Haller S. ↑,
64', Morata A. ↓, Barrios P. ↑,
73', Adeyemi K. ↓, Bynoe-Gittens J. ↑,
75', Gimenez J. M. 🟨,
80', de Paul R. ↓, Correa A. ↑,
81', 2 - 1, Haller S. ⚽,
84', Can E. ↓, Ozcan S. ↑,
84', Sabitzer M. ↓, Reus M. ↑,
90', Molina N. ↓, Niguez S. ↑,
90', Witsel A. ↓, Savic S. ↑,
90', Lino S. ↓, Riquelme R. ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

Recent matches Atlético is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Borussia D is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Atlético could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Atlético is a favorite.

There will not play in Atlético: Depay M. (Muscle Injury) Hermoso M. (Muscle Injury) Lemar T. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Vitolo (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Borussia D: Bamba S. (Muscle Injury) Bensebaini R. (Knee Injury) Malen D. (Thigh Injury)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Atlético won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Atlético won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
01.04.24	Villarreal - Atlético Madrid	1:2 ✺
17.03.24	Atlético Madrid - Barcelona	0:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
13.03.24	Atlético Madrid - Inter Milan	3:1 penalties ✺
Spanish LaLiga
09.03.24	Cádiz - Atlético Madrid	2:0 ✺
03.03.24	Atlético Madrid - Betis	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WLWLW
- Borussia Dortmund
German Bundesliga
06.04.24	Borussia Dortmund - Stuttgart	0:1 ✺
30.03.24	Bayern Munich - Borussia Dortmund	0:2 ✺
17.03.24	Borussia Dortmund - Eintracht Frankfurt	3:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
13.03.24	Borussia Dortmund - PSV Eindhoven	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
09.03.24	Werder Bremen - Borussia Dortmund	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.6 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
06.11.18	Atlético Madrid - Borussia Dortmund	2:0
24.10.18	Borussia Dortmund - Atlético Madrid	4:0

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