Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 34

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Weserstadion (Bremen)

Referee: Dankert B. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Werder Bremen		Borussia Dortmund

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.9	2.05	Watch
	3.2	3.95	2.08	Watch
	3.45	4.05	2.08
	3.2	4.12	2.1	Watch
	3.1	3.7	2	Watch
	3.38	4.04	2.06	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.24 ↓ (3.66)	3.96 ↑ (3.79)	2.06 ↑ (1.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 1.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Werder Bremen
29.5%

Draw
24.1%

Borussia Dortmund
46.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26%

25.1%

49%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.2%

24.9%

48.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Werder Bremen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Borussia Dortmund has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Werder Bremen than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.6%	15.6%	68.7%

Werder Bremen - Borussia Dortmund Predictions

Users Predictions: 31 users predict this event. Werder will win (votes: 5 - 16.1%). Borussia D will win (votes: 22 - 71%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 12.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Borussia D: 55% – 87%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Borussia D (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Backhaus M. (G) 23. Schmidt I. 5. Pieper A. 31. Coulibaly K. 2. Deman O. 11. Njinmah J. 6. Stage J. (C) 14. Lynen S. 18. Puertas C. 20. Schmid R. 29. Musah S.	1. Kobel G. (G) 49. Reggiani L. 3. Anton W. 4. Schlotterbeck N. (C) 26. Ryerson J. 8. Nmecha F. 7. Bellingham J. 24. Svensson D. 14. Beier M. 40. Inacio S. 9. Guirassy S.
Substitutes
27. Agu F. 10. Bittencourt L. 24. Covic P. 32. Friedl M. 17. Grull M. 25. Kolke M. (G) 7. Mbangula S. 19. Milosevic J. 4. Stark N.	27. Adeyemi K. 10. Brandt J. 17. Chukwuemeka C. 2. Couto Y. 33. Meyer A. (G) 6. Ozcan S. 20. Sabitzer M. 21. Silva F. 25. Sule N.
Coaches
Thioune D.	Kovac N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Pieper A. ↓, Friedl M. ↑,
53', Schmidt I. ↓, Grull M. ↑,
59', 0 - 1, Guirassy S. ⚽, Ryerson J. (A),
70', Beier M. ↓, Brandt J. ↑,
70', Inacio S. ↓, Chukwuemeka C. ↑,
70', Puertas C. ↓, Covic P. ↑,
70', Musah S. ↓, Mbangula S. ↑,
83', Bellingham J. ↓, Adeyemi K. ↑,
83', Guirassy S. ↓, Silva F. ↑,
88', Ryerson J. ↓, Couto Y. ↑,
90+3', Schmid R. ↓, Bittencourt L. ↑,
90+5', 0 - 2, Couto Y. ⚽, Adeyemi K. (A),

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 15 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

Borussia D is Qualified for Champions League (League phase )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Werder won 0.

Werder is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Borussia D has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Werder may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Borussia D might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Werder: Hein K. (Hand Injury) Malatini J. (Ankle Injury) Sugawara Y. (Red Card) Topp K. (Knee Injury) Weiser M. (Knee Injury) Wober M. (Illness)

There will not play in Borussia D: Bensebaini R. (Foot Injury) Can E. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Werder won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 29:42. (average 1.5:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Werder won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 9:15. (average 1:1.7).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Dortmund: 8.91% Werder Bremen: 0.26%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Dortmund	5	4	1	0	11:4	7	13
4	Werder Bremen	5	2	2	1	10:10	0	8

Last Results with these Odds

Borussia Dortmund - the odds 1.94 are the expected chance of winning is 48.97%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Werder Bremen
German Bundesliga
09.05.26	Hoffenheim - Werder Bremen	1:0 ✺
02.05.26	Werder Bremen - Augsburg	1:3 ✺
26.04.26	Stuttgart - Werder Bremen	1:1 ✺
18.04.26	Werder Bremen - Hamburger SV	3:1 ✺
12.04.26	Köln - Werder Bremen	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LLTWL
- Borussia Dortmund
German Bundesliga
08.05.26	Borussia Dortmund - Eintracht Frankfurt	3:2 ✺
03.05.26	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Borussia Dortmund	1:0 ✺
26.04.26	Borussia Dortmund - Freiburg	4:0 ✺
18.04.26	Hoffenheim - Borussia Dortmund	2:1 ✺
11.04.26	Borussia Dortmund - Bayer Leverkusen	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
13.01.26	Borussia Dortmund - Werder Bremen	3:0
25.01.25	Borussia Dortmund - Werder Bremen	2:2
31.08.24	Werder Bremen - Borussia Dortmund	0:0
09.03.24	Werder Bremen - Borussia Dortmund	1:2
20.10.23	Borussia Dortmund - Werder Bremen	1:0
11.02.23	Werder Bremen - Borussia Dortmund	0:2
20.08.22	Borussia Dortmund - Werder Bremen	2:3

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