Match Info

Europa League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 16 April 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio de Balaídos (Vigo)

Referee: Taylor A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Celta de Vigo		Freiburg

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.8	4.5
	1.8	4	4.35
	1.83	3.98	4.55
	1.88	3.8	3.97	Watch
	1.75	3.7	4.2
	1.79	3.89	4.61
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↓ (1.85)	3.86 ↑ (3.82)	4.36 ↑ (4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Celta de Vigo
53.2%

Draw
24.8%

Freiburg
22%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.4%

24.9%

23.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.4%

25.9%

22.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Celta de Vigo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Freiburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Celta de Vigo than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Freiburg than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.6%	9.1%	27.3%

Celta de Vigo - Freiburg Predictions

Users Predictions: 31 users predict this event. Celta will win (votes: 19 - 61.3%). Freiburg will win (votes: 9 - 29%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 9.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Celta: 44.2% – 78.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Celta (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Freiburg (1.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Celta (votes: 1 - 50%). Freiburg (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Radu I. (G) 32. Rodriguez J. 29. Lago Y. 20. Alonso M. 17. Rueda J. 15. Vecino M. 6. Moriba I. 3. Mingueza O. 30. Lopez F. 7. Iglesias B. (C) 9. Jutgla F.	1. Atubolu N. (G) 29. Treu P. 28. Ginter M. 3. Lienhart P. 33. Makengo J. 8. Eggestein M. 44. Manzambi J. 19. Beste J. 14. Suzuki Y. 32. Grifo V. (C) 31. Matanovic I.
Substitutes
4. Aidoo J. 23. Alvarez H. 10. Aspas I. 5. Carreira S. 18. Duran P. 39. El Abdellaoui J. 12. Fernandez M. 14. Nunez A. 21. Ristic M. 22. Sotelo H. 19. Swedberg W. 1. Villar I. (G)	30. Gunter C. 27. Hofler N. 9. Holer L. 24. Huth J. (G) 22. Irie C. 5. Jung A. 17. Kubler L. 21. Muller F. (G) 43. Ogbus B. 26. Philipp M. 7. Scherhant D. 65. Steinmann K.
Coaches
Giraldez C.	Schuster J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
33', 0 - 1, Matanovic I. ⚽, Makengo J. (A),
39', 0 - 2, Suzuki Y. ⚽, Beste J. (A),
45', Matanovic I. 🟨,
45', Moriba I. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Iglesias B. ↓, Aspas I. ↑,
46', Lago Y. ↓, Carreira S. ↑,
46', Moriba I. ↓, Swedberg W. ↑,
46', Rueda J. ↓, El Abdellaoui J. ↑,
49', Vecino M. 🟨,
49', Aspas I. 🟨,
50', 0 - 3, Suzuki Y. ⚽, Grifo V. (A),
56', Matanovic I. ↓, Holer L. ↑,
56', Grifo V. ↓, Scherhant D. ↑,
56', Ginter M. 🟨,
64', Vecino M. ↓, Alvarez H. ↑,
71', Lienhart P. ↓, Ogbus B. ↑,
71', Manzambi J. ↓, Hofler N. ↑,
83', Beste J. ↓, Irie C. ↑,
87', Alvarez H. 🟨,
90+1', 1 - 3, Swedberg W. ⚽, Alvarez H. (A),

Preview

First leg result: 0-3. Second leg.

Celta has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Freiburg is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, Celta is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Celta: Roman M. (Foot Injury) Starfelt C. (Back Injury)

There will not play in Freiburg: Kyereh D. (Lacking Match Fitness)

There are questionable in Freiburg: Osterhage P. (Knee Injury) Rosenfelder M. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Celta won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Outrights of UEFA Europa League for now

Celta Vigo: 4.38%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
25	Celta Vigo	1	0	0	1	0:1	-1	0

Last Results with these Odds

Celta de Vigo - the odds 1.85 are the expected chance of winning is 51.37%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Celta de Vigo
Spanish LaLiga
12.04.26	Celta de Vigo - Real Oviedo	0:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
09.04.26	Freiburg - Celta de Vigo	3:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
05.04.26	Valencia - Celta de Vigo	2:3 ✺
22.03.26	Celta de Vigo - Deportivo Alavés	3:4 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.03.26	Lyon - Celta de Vigo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 LLWLW
- SC Freiburg
German Bundesliga
12.04.26	Mainz - Freiburg	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
09.04.26	Freiburg - Celta de Vigo	3:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
04.04.26	Freiburg - Bayern Munich	2:3 ✺
22.03.26	St. Pauli - Freiburg	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.03.26	Freiburg - Genk	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.3 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
09.04.26	Freiburg - Celta de Vigo	3:0

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