Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 22 October 2024, Tuesday

Location: MRV Arena (Belo Horizonte)

Referee: Valenzuela J. (Ven)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App
Argentina	Fox Sports, Mi Telefe App, Mi Telefe, Telefe
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Claro TV+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Chile	ESPN Premium
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 9
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 4
Mexico	ESPN
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Peru	ESPN
Poland	Polsat Sport 1
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Slovenia	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1 Premium
Spain	beIN Sports, LaLiga+
Turkey	S Sport 2, S Sport+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Venezuela	ESPN, Inter
World	Disney+, Fanatiz, LaLiga+ app


	Atlético Mineiro		River Plate Montevideo

	1	X	2
	2.3	2.8	3.6	Watch
	2.35	2.8	3.6
	2.35	2.75	3.65	Watch
	2.38	2.8	3.96
	2.36	2.7	3.89	Watch
	2.25	2.62	3.6	Watch
	2.39	2.71	3.94	Watch
	2.35	2.75	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.34 ↑ (2.19)	2.74 ↓ (3.18)	3.74 ↑ (3.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Mineiro
40.3%

Draw
34.4%

River Plate Montevideo
25.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.1%

29.7%

27.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.1%

29%

26.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

River Plate Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for River Plate Montevideo than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
45.5%	27.3%	27.3%

Atlético Mineiro - River Plate Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Atlético MG will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). River Plate will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético MG: 16.1% – 74.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Everson (G) 2. Lyanco 21. Battaglia R. 8. Alonso J. 6. Gustavo Scarpa 23. Franco A. 18. Fausto Vera 13. Guilherme Arana 7. Hulk (C) 9. Deyverson 10. Paulinho	1. Armani F. (C) 16. Bustos F. 14. Gonzalez Pirez L. 6. Pezzella G. 17. Diaz P. 24. Acuna M. 31. Simon S. 4. Fonseca N. 26. Fernandez N. 11. Colidio F. 9. Miguel Borja
Substitutes
14. Alan Kardec 45. Alisson 3. Bruno Fuchs 11. Eduardo Vargas 17. Igor Gomes 16. Igor Rabello 25. Mariano 31. Matheus Mendes (G) 27. Monteiro P. 5. Otavio 26. Renzo Saravia 44. Rubens	7. Bareiro A. 20. Casco M. 13. Diaz E. 19. Echeverri C. . Gattoni F. 5. Kranevitter M. 10. Lanzini M. 25. Ledesma C. (G) 30. Mastantuono F. 8. Meza M. 36. Solari P. 23. Villagra R.
Coaches
Milito G.	Gallardo M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
22', 1 - 0, Deyverson ⚽, Hulk (A),
26', Colidio F. 🟨,
43', Bustos F. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Diaz E. 🟨,
60', Simon S. ↓, Meza M. ↑,
60', Fernandez N. ↓, Lanzini M. ↑,
60', Fonseca N. ↓, Villagra R. ↑,
70', 2 - 0, Deyverson ⚽, Guilherme Arana (A),
72', Miguel Borja ↓, Bareiro A. ↑,
72', Colidio F. ↓, Solari P. ↑,
74', 3 - 0, Paulinho ⚽, Deyverson (A),
82', Deyverson ↓, Otavio ↑,
86', Meza M. 🟨,
90', Bareiro A. 🟨,
90+3', Fausto Vera 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

Atlético MG is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recent matches River Plate is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Atlético MG will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Atlético MG won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4:0 (average 2:0).

Including matches at home between the teams Atlético MG won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Mineiro
Copa do Brasil
19.10.24	Vasco da Gama - Atlético Mineiro	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
16.10.24	Fortaleza - Atlético Mineiro	1:1 ✺
09.10.24	Atlético Mineiro - Grêmio	2:1 ✺
05.10.24	Atlético Mineiro - Vitória Salvador	2:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
02.10.24	Atlético Mineiro - Vasco da Gama	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 TTWTW
- River Plate Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
19.10.24	Progreso - River Plate Montevideo	2:0 ✺
16.10.24	River Plate Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	0:1 ✺
12.10.24	Montevideo Wanderers - River Plate Montevideo	0:1 ✺
04.10.24	River Plate Montevideo - Liverpool Montevideo	1:1 ✺
29.09.24	River Plate Montevideo - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 LLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
18.08.21	Atlético Mineiro - River Plate Montevideo	3:0
11.08.21	River Plate Montevideo - Atlético Mineiro	0:1

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