Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 25

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps (Auxerre)

Referee: Pignard J. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Austria	DAZN
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Finland	Viaplay 3 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
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Israel	5 PLUS Israel
Italy	Ligue 1+
Japan	DAZN Japan
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Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 1x2
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Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Onefootball


	Auxerre		Strasbourg

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.2	2.25	Watch
	3.4	3.4	2.1
	3.35	3.25	2.22	Watch
	3.58	3.35	2.25
	3.55	3.32	2.13	Watch
	3.4	3.1	2.15
	3.65	3.26	2.22	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.48 ↓ (3.81)	3.27 ↓ (3.37)	2.19 ↑ (2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Auxerre
27.4%

Draw
29.1%

Strasbourg
43.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.8%

28%

47.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.5%

27.6%

47.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Auxerre has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Strasbourg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Auxerre than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Strasbourg than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.2%	6.2%	87.5%

Auxerre - Strasbourg Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Auxerre (3.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Strasbourg will win (27 of 31 users predict this - 87.1%).
Confidence interval (95%): 75.3% – 98.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Strasbourg will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Auxerre (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Strasbourg (votes: 8 - 88.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Leon D. (G) 29. Senaya M. 20. Diomande S. 24. Okoh B. 14. Mensah G. 7. Casimir J. 5. Danois K. 42. Owusu E. (C) 22. Oppegard F. 10. Sinayoko L. 19. Namaso D.	39. Penders M. (G) 24. Hogsberg L. 2. Omobamidele A. 6. Doukoure I. (C) 3. Chilwell B. 42. Ouattara A. 29. El Mourabet S. 80. Yassine G. 19. Enciso J. 20. Godo M. 15. Fofana D. D.
Substitutes
8. Ahamada N. 92. Akpa C. 44. Cissokho M. 40. De Percin T. (G) 18. Diousse A. 31. Rodin R. 4. Sierralta F. 27. Sy L. 41. Zaddy Y.	27. Amo-Ameyaw S. 17. Amougou M. 50. Bajic S. (G) 32. Barco V. 1. Johnsson K. (G) 83. Luis R. 11. Nanasi S. 8. Oyedele M. 9. Panichelli J.
Coaches
Pelissier C.	O'Neil G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
11', El Mourabet S. 🟨,
43', Mensah G. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Yassine G. ↓, Amo-Ameyaw S. ↑,
56', Senaya M. 🟨,
59', Pelissier C. 🟨,
63', Omobamidele A. 🟨,
64', Fofana D. D. ↓, Panichelli J. ↑,
65', Godo M. ↓, Nanasi S. ↑,
65', Chilwell B. ↓, Barco V. ↑,
77', Senaya M. ↓, Sy L. ↑,
77', Casimir J. ↓, Ahamada N. ↑,
78', El Mourabet S. ↓, Oyedele M. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Auxerre won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Auxerre may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Strasbourg could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Auxerre: Buayi-Kiala N. (Knee Injury) Coulibaly L. (Injury) Devernois T. (Injury) El Azzouzi O. (Injury) Faivre R. (Injury) Mara S. (Loan agreement)

There will not play in Strasbourg: Emegha E. (Leg Injury) Moreira D. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Strasbourg: Anselmino A. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Auxerre won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 6:13. (average 0.7:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Auxerre won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 0.8:0.6).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Strasbourg: 0.64% Auxerre: 0.23%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Strasbourg	5	2	1	2	10:10	0	7
10	Auxerre	5	2	0	3	7:12	-5	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AJ Auxerre
French Ligue 1
01.03.26	Lorient - Auxerre	2:2 ✺
22.02.26	Auxerre - Rennes	0:3 ✺
15.02.26	Metz - Auxerre	1:3 ✺
08.02.26	Auxerre - Paris FC	0:0 ✺
01.02.26	Toulouse - Auxerre	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 TLWTT
- RC Strasbourg
Coupe De France
03.03.26	Strasbourg - Reims	2:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
27.02.26	Strasbourg - Lens	1:1 ✺
22.02.26	Strasbourg - Lyon	3:1 ✺
14.02.26	Olympique Marseille - Strasbourg	2:2 ✺
08.02.26	Le Havre - Strasbourg	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WTWTL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
29.10.25	Strasbourg - Auxerre	3:0
02.03.25	Auxerre - Strasbourg	0:1
05.01.25	Strasbourg - Auxerre	3:1
19.03.23	Strasbourg - Auxerre	2:0
27.08.22	Auxerre - Strasbourg	1:0
French Ligue 2
20.03.17	Auxerre - Strasbourg	0:2
21.10.16	Strasbourg - Auxerre	2:1

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