Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 24

Date: 1 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Stade du Moustoir (Lorient)

Referee: Buquet R. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	Onefootball


	Lorient		Auxerre

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.25	3.75	Watch
	2.1	3.2	3.7
	2.12	3.25	3.7	Watch
	2.13	3.3	3.97
	2.06	3.27	3.82	Watch
	2.05	3.1	3.6
	2.14	3.31	3.82	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↓ (2.11)	3.24 ↑ (3.2)	3.77 ↑ (3.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorient
45.3%

Draw
29.4%

Auxerre
25.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.7%

29.5%

25.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.7%

30.2%

26.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorient has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Auxerre has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorient than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Auxerre than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.4%	8.3%	6.2%

Lorient - Auxerre Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

DC - Lorient (1.28) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Auxerre (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Lorient will win (41 of 48 users predict this - 85.42%).
Confidence interval (95%): 75.44% – 95.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lorient will win (11 of 11 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Lorient (votes: 13 - 92.9%). Auxerre (votes: 1 - 7.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
38. Mvogo Y. (G) 5. Meite B. 3. Talbi M. 2. Igor Silva 11. Le Bris T. 8. Cadiou N. 6. Abergel L. (C) 44. Yongwa D. 17. Makengo J. 10. Pagis P. 12. Dieng B.	16. Leon D. (G) 20. Diomande S. 24. Okoh B. 14. Mensah G. 29. Senaya M. 42. Owusu E. (C) 5. Danois K. 22. Oppegard F. 7. Casimir J. 19. Namaso D. 10. Sinayoko L.
Substitutes
32. Adjei N. 62. Avom A. 9. Bamba M. 21. Kamara B. (G) 29. Karim D. 77. Katseris P. 28. Soumano S. 15. Tosin A.	8. Ahamada N. 92. Akpa C. 44. Cissokho M. 40. De Percin T. (G) 18. Diousse A. 9. Mara S. 4. Sierralta F. 27. Sy L. 41. Zaddy Y.
Coaches
Pantaloni O.	Pelissier C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
1', 0 - 1, Senaya M. ⚽, Diomande S. (A),
19', 1 - 1, Dieng B. ⚽, Yongwa D. (A),
20', Dieng B. 🟨,
24', 1 - 2, Casimir J. ⚽, Namaso D. (A),
29', Namaso D. 🟨,
29', 2 - 2, Dieng B. ⚽, Pagis P. (A),
45', Sinayoko L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
54', Senaya M. 🟨,
71', Abergel L. ↓, Avom A. ↑,
72', Makengo J. ↓, Karim D. ↑,
80', Pagis P. ↓, Tosin A. ↑,
81', Dieng B. ↓, Soumano S. ↑,
81', Casimir J. ↓, Mara S. ↑,
90', Le Bris T. ↓, Katseris P. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 9 and 16 in the zone Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lorient won 2.

Lorient is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Auxerre's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Lorient will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Lorient: Fadiga B. (Injury) Faye A. (Foot Injury) Kouassi A. (Injury) Leroy B. (Injury) Sanusi T. (Injury) Toure I. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Auxerre: Buayi-Kiala N. (Knee Injury) Coulibaly L. (Injury) Devernois T. (Injury) El Azzouzi O. (Injury) Faivre R. (Injury) Sierralta F. (Injury) Siwe T. (Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Lorient won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:9. (average 0.9:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Lorient won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:6. (average 1:1.5).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Lorient: 0.35% Auxerre: 0.23%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Auxerre	5	2	0	3	7:12	-5	6
12	Lorient	5	1	2	2	5:6	-1	5

Last Results with these Odds

Auxerre - the odds 3.67 are the expected chance of winning is 25.76%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Lorient
French Ligue 1
22.02.26	Nice - Lorient	3:3 ✺
15.02.26	Lorient - Angers	2:0 ✺
07.02.26	Brest - Lorient	2:0 ✺
Coupe De France
04.02.26	Lorient - Paris FC	2:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
31.01.26	Lorient - Nantes	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 TWLWW
- AJ Auxerre
French Ligue 1
22.02.26	Auxerre - Rennes	0:3 ✺
15.02.26	Metz - Auxerre	1:3 ✺
08.02.26	Auxerre - Paris FC	0:0 ✺
01.02.26	Toulouse - Auxerre	0:0 ✺
23.01.26	Auxerre - Paris Saint-Germain	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 LWTTL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
17.08.25	Auxerre - Lorient	1:0
26.02.23	Lorient - Auxerre	0:1
16.09.22	Auxerre - Lorient	1:3
French Ligue 2
13.12.19	Lorient - Auxerre	1:0
29.04.19	Lorient - Auxerre	2:2
03.12.18	Auxerre - Lorient	0:0
17.02.18	Lorient - Auxerre	1:3

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