Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 22

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Stade Saint-Symphorien (Metz)

Referee: Bollengier M. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
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Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 8, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 6, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Italy	Ligue 1+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	FOX One, Fox Sports
Netherlands	Viaplay
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Slovakia	Nova Sport 6, Voyo
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Sport, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	DAZN, Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	ON Plus, TV 360, VTVcab
World	Onefootball


	Metz		Auxerre

	1	X	2
	3	3	2.55	Watch
	3.05	3.05	2.52	Watch
	3.03	3.15	2.66
	3.03	3.09	2.5	Watch
	2.9	2.9	2.5
	3.09	3.11	2.7	Watch
	3	3	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.01 ↑ (2.79)	3.04 ↑ (2.83)	2.58 ↓ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Metz
31.6%

Draw
31.3%

Auxerre
37%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.8%

33.4%

32.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.1%

35.2%

34.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Metz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Auxerre has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Metz than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Auxerre than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15%	60%	25%

Metz - Auxerre Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Metz will win (votes: 3 - 15%). Auxerre will win (votes: 5 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 60%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 38.5% – 81.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Metz (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 4 - 80%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Auxerre (1.80) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Auxerre (1.44) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Auxerre (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Metz (1.71) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Metz (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Auxerre (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Tie (votes: 4 - 36.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fischer J. (G) 39. Kouao K. 38. Sane S. 4. Mboula U. 97. Ballo-Toure F. 33. Munongo B. 10. Hein G. 9. Abuashvili G. 20. Deminguet J. 7. Tsitaishvili G. 30. Diallo H. (C)	16. Leon D. (G) 27. Sy L. 20. Diomande S. 92. Akpa C. 24. Okoh B. 8. Ahamada N. 42. Owusu E. (C) 5. Danois K. 28. Faivre R. 10. Sinayoko L. 9. Mara S.
Substitutes
99. Asoro J. 40. Ba O. (G) 2. Colin M. 11. Kvilitaia G. 18. Mbala N. 19. Michal L. 70. Sarr B. 12. Toure A. 15. Yegbe T.	7. Casimir J. 21. Coulibaly L. 40. De Percin T. (G) 36. Devernois T. 18. Diousse A. 14. Mensah G. 22. Oppegard F. 29. Senaya M. 41. Zaddy Y.
Coaches
Tavenot B.	Pelissier C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, Sane S. (Own goal),
6', Kouao K. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Deminguet J. ↓, Toure A. ↑,
62', Ballo-Toure F. ↓, Michal L. ↑,
62', Kouao K. ↓, Colin M. ↑,
66', Michal L. 🟨,
70', Hein G. ↓, Kvilitaia G. ↑,
72', Mara S. ↓, Casimir J. ↑,
73', Faivre R. ↓, Coulibaly L. ↑,
76', 0 - 2, Sinayoko L. ⚽, Ahamada N. (A),
78', Casimir J. 🟨,
82', Sy L. ↓, Senaya M. ↑,
82', Ahamada N. ↓, Diousse A. ↑,
86', Abuashvili G. ↓, Mbala N. ↑,
89', 0 - 3, Danois K. ⚽, Sinayoko L. (A),
90+1', Danois K. ↓, Zaddy Y. ↑,
90+1', Sinayoko L. 🟨,
90+4', 1 - 3, Mbala N. ⚽, Toure A. (A),

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2 and 16 in the zone Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Metz won 0.

Metz has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Auxerre has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Auxerre may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Metz: Gbamin J. (Red Card) Guerti I. (Injury) Lawson Y. (Injury) Mangondo J. (Knee Injury) Stambouli B. (Injury) Sy P. (Concussion) Traore B. (Injury)

There will not play in Auxerre: Buayi-Kiala N. (Knee Injury) El Azzouzi O. (Injury) Namaso D. (Yellow Cards) Sierralta F. (Injury) Siwe T. (Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Metz won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 9:19. (average 0.8:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Metz won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 5:11. (average 0.8:1.8).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Auxerre: 0.23%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Auxerre	5	2	0	3	7:12	-5	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Metz
French Ligue 1
06.02.26	Metz - Lille	0:0 ✺
01.02.26	Angers - Metz	1:0 ✺
25.01.26	Metz - Lyon	2:5 ✺
18.01.26	Strasbourg - Metz	2:1 ✺
Coupe De France
11.01.26	Metz - Montpellier	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 TLLLL
- AJ Auxerre
French Ligue 1
08.02.26	Auxerre - Paris FC	0:0 ✺
01.02.26	Toulouse - Auxerre	0:0 ✺
23.01.26	Auxerre - Paris Saint-Germain	0:1 ✺
17.01.26	Lens - Auxerre	1:0 ✺
04.01.26	Brest - Auxerre	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TTLLL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
07.12.25	Auxerre - Metz	3:1
Club Friendly
09.12.22	Metz - Auxerre	1:5
French Ligue 2
06.04.19	Auxerre - Metz	0:0
05.11.18	Metz - Auxerre	0:1
Club Friendly
13.07.18	Metz - Auxerre	0:0
14.07.17	Metz - Auxerre	1:4
French Ligue 2
08.04.16	Auxerre - Metz	4:0

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