Match Info

Serie B - Round 19

Date: 21 July 2026, Tuesday

Location: Dr. Aderbal Ramos da Silva (Ressacada) (Florianópolis)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Avaí		América Mineiro

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.10	3.30	Watch
	2.20	2.95	3.25
	2.20	3.10	3.35	Watch
	2.34	3.05	3.59
	2.19	3.1	3.51
	2.30	3.00	3.45
	2.27	2.96	3.38	Watch
	2.24	3.05	3.30
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↑ (2.15)	3.04 ↓ (3.25)	3.39 ↑ (3.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Avaí
41.6%

Draw
30.8%

América Mineiro
27.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.4%

28.7%

27.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.8%

27%

29.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Avaí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

América Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Avaí than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for América Mineiro than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	16.7%	8.3%

Avaí - América Mineiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Avaí will win (votes: 9 - 75%). América MG will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Avaí: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Avaí (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Igor Bohn (G) 2. Wallison 3. Allyson 38. Jefferson Maciel 56. William 43. Thayllon 77. Ze Ricardo (C) 8. Luiz Henrique 66. Quaresma 14. Daniel Penha 10. Jean Lucas	1. Gustavo (G) 32. Filipe Dahora 26. Manoel (C) 3. Sosa L. 29. Dalbert 8. Felipe Amaral 77. Segovia M. 20. Paulo Victor 10. Yago Souza 11. Gabriel Barros 7. Guilherme Parede
Substitutes
4. Gabriel Simples 15. Guilherme Aquino 17. Juan Rocha 9. Leo Gamalho 29. Marcio Vitor 21. Otavio Passos (G) 25. Paulo Vitor 5. Romildo Del Piage 11. Sorriso 95. Wenderson	5. Elizari F. 6. Gabriel Domingos 17. Gonzalo Mastriani 13. Heitor 39. Italo G. 93. Jorge Jimenez 30. Montes L. 61. Oliveira G. 25. Ostchega T. 19. William (G)
Coaches
Aal A.	Umberto Louzer

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
39', 0 - 1, Paulo Victor ⚽,
45+2', Segovia M. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Quaresma ↓, Sorriso ↑,
54', Felipe Amaral ↓, Jorge Jimenez ↑,
61', Jean Lucas ↓, Leo Gamalho ↑,
66', Filipe Dahora 🟨,
69', Jorge Jimenez 🟨,
69', Segovia M. ↓, Gabriel Domingos ↑,
69', Gabriel Barros ↓, Montes L. ↑,
70', William 🟨,
75', Wallison ↓, Wenderson ↑,
75', Ze Ricardo ↓, Romildo Del Piage ↑,
81', Gabriel Domingos ↓, Elizari F. ↑,
82', Yago Souza ↓, Oliveira G. ↑,
83', Oliveira G. 🟨,
87', 1 - 1, Daniel Penha (Penalty Awarded),
88', 2 - 1, Thayllon ⚽, Daniel Penha (A),

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Avaí won 1.

Avaí has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

América MG is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Avaí will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Avaí won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 14:19. (average 0.9:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Avaí won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:7. (average 1.3:0.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
17	Avai	32	9	6	17	32:43	-11	33
19	America MG ✔	32	4	5	23	21:53	-32	17

Last Results with these Odds

Avaí - the odds 2.15 are the expected chance of winning is 43.42%, but this team recently wins 21% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Avaí
Brazilian Serie B
17.07.26	São Bernardo - Avaí	1:1 ✺
12.07.26	Avaí - Náutico Capibaribe	2:0 ✺
06.07.26	Botafogo SP - Avaí	3:1 ✺
28.06.26	Athletic Club - Avaí	1:0 ✺
21.06.26	Avaí - Cuiabá	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 TWLLW
- América Mineiro
Brazilian Serie B
17.07.26	América Mineiro - Ceará	1:1 ✺
13.07.26	América Mineiro - Londrina	1:1 ✺
02.07.26	Cuiabá - América Mineiro	1:0 ✺
27.06.26	Operário Ferroviario - América Mineiro	1:0 ✺
23.06.26	América Mineiro - Criciúma	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 TTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
02.09.25	América Mineiro - Avaí	2:0
26.04.25	Avaí - América Mineiro	3:0
11.10.24	Avaí - América Mineiro	2:2
25.06.24	América Mineiro - Avaí	1:1
Brazilian Serie A
31.07.22	América Mineiro - Avaí	3:1
10.04.22	Avaí - América Mineiro	1:0
Brazilian Serie B
29.01.21	América Mineiro - Avaí	2:1

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