Match Info

Recopa Catarinense - Final

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Dr. Aderbal Ramos da Silva (Ressacada) (Florianópolis)


	Avaí		Figueirense

	1	X	2
	1.99	3.4	3.68	Watch
	1.95	3	3.6
	1.98	3.42	3.52
	1.52	3.5	5.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↑ (1.52)	3.33 ↓ (3.5)	4.1 ↓ (5.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Avaí
49.7%

Draw
27.8%

Figueirense
22.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.6%

25.5%

15.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.6%

24.7%

15.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Avaí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Avaí's form might have worsened.

Figueirense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Figueirense's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avaí than the current prediction. (+10.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Avaí, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Figueirense than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Figueirense, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Avaí - Figueirense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Leo Aragao (G) 3. Allyson 9. Avenatti F. 55. Bruno Baldini 14. Daniel Penha 36. DG 10. Jean Lucas 8. Luiz Henrique 43. Thayllon 2. Wallison 77. Ze Ricardo (C)	52. Igo Gabriel (G) 6. Arthur Henrique 11. Arthur Martins 5. Breno 3. Douglas Bacelar (C) 98. Dudu Sampaio 8. Flavio 33. Freitas Barreto P. C. 25. Jhonnathan 2. Leo Maia 18. Raynan
Substitutes
6. Cabral N. 30. Cristiano 15. Guilherme Aquino 1. Igor Bohn (G) 50. Joao Maistro 21. Otavio Passos (G) 25. Paulo Vitor 7. Rafael Bilu 17. Sorriso 57. Walace 95. Wanderson 52. Wesley Gasolina	4. Anderson Conceicao 88. da Costa M. 12. Fabricio Santana (G) 27. Felipe Santiago 91. Hyuri 70. Igor Bolt 30. Jean Mangabeira 17. Pablo 79. Paje 28. Rafinha Potiguar 22. Ricardo V. 66. Wesley Costa

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
2', 🟨,
11', 🟨,
13', 1 - 0, Avenatti F. ⚽,
18', 🟨,
37', 🟨,
44', 2 - 0, Allyson ⚽,
45+3', 2 - 1, Arthur Henrique ⚽,
45+4', 3 - 1, Luiz Henrique ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
52', 3 - 2, ⚽,
55', 4 - 2, Jean Lucas ⚽,
69', 🟨,
72', 🟨,
75', 🟨,
75', 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Avaí won 3.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Avaí may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Avaí is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Avaí won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 22:21. (average 1.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Avaí won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:6. (average 1.3:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Avaí
Copa do Brasil
10.03.26	Portuguesa - Avaí	2:1 penalties ✺
04.03.26	Avaí - Porto Vitória	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
28.02.26	Camboriú - Avaí	1:0 ✺
21.02.26	Avaí - Santa Catarina	3:0 ✺
14.02.26	Santa Catarina - Avaí	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LWLWW
- Figueirense
Copa do Brasil
12.03.26	Amazonas - Figueirense	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
06.03.26	Figueirense - Carlos Renaux	2:4 ✺
Copa do Brasil
03.03.26	Figueirense - Azuriz	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
27.02.26	Joinville - Figueirense	0:3 ✺
20.02.26	Figueirense - Náutico Marcílio Dias	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
18.01.26	Figueirense - Avaí	0:2
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
09.09.25	Figueirense - Avaí	5:0
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
05.03.25	Avaí - Figueirense	2:1 penalties
25.01.25	Avaí - Figueirense	0:1
17.02.24	Figueirense - Avaí	1:2
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
18.10.23	Avaí - Figueirense	1:0
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
04.02.23	Avaí - Figueirense	4:0

Upcoming Matches