Match Info

Serie B - Round 8

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Dr. Aderbal Ramos da Silva (Ressacada) (Florianópolis)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Avaí		Fortaleza

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.1	3.1	Watch
	2.6	3.1	2.55
	2.45	3	2.92	Watch
	2.58	3.15	3.11
	2.46	3.06	3.02	Watch
	2.5	2.9	2.9
	2.48	2.98	3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.5 ↓ (2.88)	3.04 ↑ (2.98)	2.94 ↑ (2.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Avaí
37.5%

Draw
30.7%

Fortaleza
31.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.4%

31.4%

36.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.6%

31.6%

36%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Avaí has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Avaí's performance.

Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Avaí than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	50%	12.5%

Avaí - Fortaleza Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Avaí will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Fortaleza will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Leo Aragao (G) 2. Wallison 15. Guilherme Aquino 55. Bruno Baldini 36. DG 77. Ze Ricardo (C) 8. Luiz Henrique 43. Thayllon 14. Daniel Penha 10. Jean Lucas 7. Rafael Bilu	25. Vinicius Silvestre (G) 2. Britez E. (C) 33. Kaua Rocha 4. Luan Freitas 22. Mailton 5. Pierre 37. Ryan 13. Mauricio Junior 11. Vitinho 7. Pochettino T. 32. Luiz Fernando
Substitutes
9. Avenatti F. 6. Cabral N. 30. Cristiano 4. Gabriel Simples 18. Hyan 1. Igor Bohn (G) 20. Isaias 16. Jamerson 21. Otavio Passos (G) 11. Sorriso 95. Wenderson 52. Wesley Gasolina	12. Brenno (G) 99. Kayke 19. Lucas Emanoel 88. Lucas Sasha 38. Lucca Prior 20. Matheus Rossetto 28. Paulinho 77. Paulo Baya 29. Rodrigo 75. Rodriguinho 8. Ronald 31. Welliton
Coaches
Cauan de Almeida	Thiago Carpini

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
33', Bruno Baldini 🟨,
38', Ryan 🟨,
45+2', Guilherme Aquino 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Kaua Rocha ↓, Ronald ↑,
46', Jean Lucas ↓, Sorriso ↑,
64', Vitinho ↓, Kayke ↑,
64', Ryan ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
67', Britez E. 🟨,
69', Rafael Bilu ↓, Wenderson ↑,
80', Pierre ↓, Lucas Sasha ↑,
80', Pochettino T. ↓, Welliton ↑,
83', DG 🟨,
85', Thayllon ↓, Isaias ↑,
85', Luiz Henrique ↓, Hyan ↑,
90+4', Daniel Penha ↓, Avenatti F. ↑,
90+6', Britez E. 🟨,
90+7', Pierre 🟥,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 14 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A Betano).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Avaí won 1.

Avaí has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Fortaleza is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Fortaleza may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Avaí won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 5:11. (average 0.8:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Avaí won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:6. (average 1.3:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Fortaleza	32	15	11	6	37:27	10	56
17	Avai	32	9	6	17	32:43	-11	33

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Avaí
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
06.05.26	Avaí - Sampaio Corrêa FE	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
03.05.26	Avaí - Grêmio Novorizontino	3:3 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
29.04.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Avaí	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
26.04.26	Atlético Goianiense - Avaí	2:1 ✺
18.04.26	Avaí - Ponte Preta	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 WTWLL
- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
07.05.26	Confiança - Fortaleza	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
02.05.26	Fortaleza - Goiás	4:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
29.04.26	Fortaleza - Sport Recife	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
26.04.26	Operário Ferroviario - Fortaleza	0:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
22.04.26	Fortaleza - CRB Maceio	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
09.10.22	Fortaleza - Avaí	2:0
16.06.22	Avaí - Fortaleza	3:2
30.10.19	Avaí - Fortaleza	1:3
13.07.19	Fortaleza - Avaí	2:0
Brazilian Serie B
10.11.18	Avaí - Fortaleza	0:1
24.07.18	Fortaleza - Avaí	1:1

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