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Current Win Probability
Avispa Fukuoka 24.1%
Draw 28.6%
Gamba Osaka 47.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
31%
29.9%
39.1%
Our Initial ML Estimation
31.6%
30.4%
38.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Avispa Fukuoka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Avispa Fukuoka's form might have worsened.
Gamba Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Gamba Osaka's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avispa Fukuoka than the current prediction. (+7.5%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Avispa Fukuoka, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gamba Osaka than the current prediction. (-8.9%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Gamba Osaka, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
16.7%
16.7%
66.7%
Avispa Fukuoka - Gamba Osaka Predictions
Users Predictions:
6 users predict this event. Avispa Fukuoka will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Gamba Osaka will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).
24. Obata Y. (G) 16. Oka T. 37. Tashiro M. 15. Tsujioka Y. 33. Yamawaki K. 55. Maeda K. 11. Miki T. (C) 29. Maejima Y. 6. Shigemi M. 14. Nago S. 9. Zahedi S.
1. Higashiguchi M. (G) 3. Handa R. 5. Miura G. 4. Nakatani S. (C) 21. Hatsuse R. 13. Abe S. 16. Suzuki T. 17. Yamashita R. 11. Jebali I. 97. Welton 23. Hummet D.
Substitutes
13. Ben Khalifa N. 22. Fujimoto K. 41. Fujita K. (G) 47. Hashimoto Y. 25. Kitajima Y. 8. Okuno K. 32. Sani Brown A. 7. Usui S.
18. Araki R. (G) 19. Ikegaya G. 15. Kishimoto T. 10. Kurata S. 8. Meshino R. 42. Minamino H. 27. Mito R. 38. Nawata G. 40. Toyama S.
Coaches
Tsukahara S.
Wissing J.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 2)
11', 0 - 1, Hummet D. ⚽, Jebali I. (A),
22', 1 - 1, Higashiguchi M. (Own goal),
42', 1 - 2, Welton ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Zahedi S. ↓, Ben Khalifa N. ↑,
46', Welton ↓, Meshino R. ↑,
46', Hatsuse R. ↓, Kishimoto T. ↑,
56', Shigemi M. ↓, Fujimoto K. ↑,
59', Yamashita R. ↓, Kurata S. ↑,
60', Abe S. ↓, Mito R. ↑,
63', Yamawaki K. ↓, Hashimoto Y. ↑,
63', Nago S. ↓, Sani Brown A. ↑,
72', Maeda K. 🟨,
81', Miki T. (Penalty Awarded),
83', Maeda K. ↓, Kitajima Y. ↑,
90+1', Meshino R. 🟨,
90+2', 2 - 2, Tsujioka Y. ⚽, Ben Khalifa N. (A),
Penalties (14 - 13)
1, Ben Khalifa N. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Hummet D. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Kitajima Y. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Kurata S. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Tsujioka Y. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Handa R. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Oka T. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Jebali I. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Miki T. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Meshino R. (Penalty Awarded),
6, Maejima Y. (Penalty Awarded),
6, Suzuki T. (Penalty Awarded),
7, Tashiro M. (Penalty Awarded),
7, Miura G. (Penalty Awarded),
8, Hashimoto Y. (Penalty Awarded),
8, Kishimoto T. (Penalty Awarded),
9, Fujimoto K. (Penalty Awarded),
9, Nakatani S. (Penalty Awarded),
10, Obata Y. (Penalty Awarded),
10, Mito R. (Penalty Awarded),
11, Sani Brown A. (Penalty Awarded),
11, Higashiguchi M. (Penalty Awarded),
12, Ben Khalifa N. (Penalty Awarded),
12, Hummet D. (Penalty Awarded),
13, Kitajima Y. (Penalty Awarded),
13, Kurata S. (Penalty Awarded),
14, Tsujioka Y. (Penalty Awarded),
14, Handa R. (Penalty Awarded),
15, Oka T. (Penalty Awarded),
15, Jebali I. (Penalty Awarded),
Preview
Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 10 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Play Offs: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Avispa Fukuoka won 3.
Avispa Fukuoka has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).
Gamba Osaka is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Avispa Fukuoka may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Gamba Osaka could have a small edge in this match.
There will not play in Gamba Osaka: Fukuoka S.
(Injury)
Ichimori J.
(Injury)
Nakano S.
(Injury)
Uenaka A.
(Injury)
Usami T.
(Muscle Injury)
There are questionable in Gamba Osaka: Sasaki S.
(Injury)
Yokoi Y.
(Knee Injury)
We predict that Gamba Osaka will win today's game, with odds of 2.24.
In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Avispa Fukuoka won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 11:13. (average 0.8:1).
Including home matches between the teams, Avispa Fukuoka won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 3:5. (average 0.5:0.8).
Outrights of Japan J1 League for now
Gamba Osaka: 0.71% Avispa Fukuoka: 0.71%
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
12
Gamba Osaka
4
1
2
1
6:7
-1
5
15
Avispa Fukuoka
4
1
0
3
6:6
0
3
Last Results with these Odds
Avispa Fukuoka - the odds 3.05 are the expected chance of winning is 31%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.
Brazil
China
Japan
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Obata Y. (G) 
Zahedi S. 
Jebali I. 
Welton 
Hummet D. 
Ben Khalifa N. 
Wissing J. 
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