The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
BSAD 31.6%
Draw 30.8%
Arouca 37.6%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
36.8%
29.9%
33.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
25.8%
21%
47.5%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
BSAD has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that BSAD's form might have worsened.
Arouca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for BSAD than the current prediction. (-5.8%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with BSAD that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (+9.9%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Arouca could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
41.2%
39.2%
19.6%
BSAD - Arouca Predictions
Users Predictions:
51 users predict this event. BSAD will win (votes: 21 - 41.2%). Arouca will win (votes: 10 - 19.6%). It will Tie (votes: 20 - 39.2%). Confidence interval (95%) for BSAD: 27.7% – 54.7%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Preview
This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation)).
Belenenses has the most likely position - 18 (47.19%), has project points - 26, has currently - 8, has a good chance of relegated (69%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
Arouca has the most likely position - 17 (12.99%), has project points - 33, has currently - 14, has a chance of relegated (30%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
Belenenses has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
Arouca is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Belenenses could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.
Last 10 head-to-head matches Belenenses won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 12-11.
Including matches at home between the teams Belenenses won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3-5.
Watch
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