Match Info

Cymru South - Round 30

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday


	Baglan Dragons		Trethomas Bluebirds

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.65	1.82
	3.48	3.88	1.83
	3.48	3.79	1.93	Watch
	3.4	3.5	1.8
	3.38	3.95	1.92
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.43 ↑ (3.39)	3.75 ↑ (3.64)	1.86 ↓ (1.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Baglan Dragons
26.6%

Draw
24.3%

Trethomas Bluebirds
49.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.7%

24.8%

48.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.6%

24.7%

48.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Baglan Dragons has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Trethomas Bluebirds has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

The ML Model estimate for Baglan Dragons aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Trethomas Bluebirds than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Baglan Dragons - Trethomas Bluebirds Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', 1 - 0, Davies T. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
64', 1 - 1, Newman Jones A. ⚽,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 14 and 13).

Baglan Dragons has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Trethomas Bluebirds has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Trethomas Bluebirds may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Trethomas Bluebirds could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Baglan Dragons won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:5. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Baglan Dragons won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Baglan Dragons	10	5	1	4	11:11	0	16
10	Trethomas Bluebirds	9	2	4	3	17:17	0	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Baglan Dragons
Welsh Cymru South
03.04.26	Cambrian United - Baglan Dragons	2:0 ✺
28.03.26	Baglan Dragons - Carmarthen Town	0:7 ✺
24.03.26	Baglan Dragons - Cwmbran Celtic	0:0 ✺
20.03.26	Ammanford - Baglan Dragons	1:0 ✺
17.03.26	Treowen Stars - Baglan Dragons	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLTLL
- Trethomas Bluebirds
Welsh Cymru South
04.04.26	Trethomas Bluebirds - Cardiff Draconians	4:4 ✺
28.03.26	Ynyshir Albions - Trethomas Bluebirds	2:2 ✺
20.03.26	Trethomas Bluebirds - Pontypridd United	4:2 ✺
14.03.26	Aberystwyth Town - Trethomas Bluebirds	3:0 ✺
09.03.26	Trethomas Bluebirds - Newport City	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 TTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
20.12.25	Trethomas Bluebirds - Baglan Dragons	2:1
01.03.25	Baglan Dragons - Trethomas Bluebirds	2:0
22.11.24	Trethomas Bluebirds - Baglan Dragons	0:1
Welsh League Cup
02.08.24	Trethomas Bluebirds - Baglan Dragons	3:1

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