Match Info

Cymru South - Round 27

Date: 20 March 2026, Friday


	Ammanford		Baglan Dragons

	1	X	2
	1.34	4.55	6.9
	1.35	4.9	7.26
	1.39	4.38	8.39	Watch
	1.33	4.4	7
	1.33	4.65	7.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.37)	4.58 ↓ (4.75)	7.39 ↑ (6.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ammanford
67.7%

Draw
19.9%

Baglan Dragons
12.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.3%

19.1%

14.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.8%

18.4%

14.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ammanford has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Baglan Dragons has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ammanford than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Baglan Dragons than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Ammanford - Baglan Dragons Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
31', 1 - 0, John D. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 and 12).

Ammanford is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Baglan Dragons is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Baglan Dragons may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Baglan Dragons has had a series of away games.

In this match, Ammanford is the clear favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ammanford won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:4. (average 2.2:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Ammanford won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Baglan Dragons	10	5	1	4	11:11	0	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ammanford AFC
Welsh Cymru South
14.03.26	Llantwit Major - Ammanford	2:3 ✺
06.03.26	Ammanford - Cardiff Draconians	2:1 ✺
01.03.26	Afan Lido - Ammanford	3:1 ✺
24.02.26	Ammanford - Aberystwyth Town	2:1 ✺
13.02.26	Ammanford - Trethomas Bluebirds	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WWLWT
- Baglan Dragons
Welsh Cymru South
17.03.26	Treowen Stars - Baglan Dragons	4:1 ✺
14.03.26	Baglan Dragons - Caerau Ely	0:5 ✺
06.03.26	Newport City - Baglan Dragons	1:2 ✺
21.02.26	Pontypridd United - Baglan Dragons	2:0 ✺
17.02.26	Trefelin - Baglan Dragons	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
28.11.25	Baglan Dragons - Ammanford	0:3
12.04.25	Ammanford - Baglan Dragons	1:1
18.08.24	Baglan Dragons - Ammanford	0:2
17.02.24	Baglan Dragons - Ammanford	1:3
08.12.23	Ammanford - Baglan Dragons	2:2

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