Match Info

Cymru South - Round 18

Date: 9 March 2026, Monday


	Trethomas Bluebirds		Newport City

	1	X	2
	2.98	3.6	2
	3.03	3.9	2.01
	3.09	3.71	2.1	Watch
	2.9	3.5	2
	3.12	3.74	2.08
	3.1	3.25	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.04 ↓ (3.49)	3.62 ↓ (3.8)	2.06 ↑ (1.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Trethomas Bluebirds
30.2%

Draw
25.3%

Newport City
44.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.6%

24.5%

48.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.5%

24.5%

49%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Trethomas Bluebirds has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Newport City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Trethomas Bluebirds than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newport City than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Trethomas Bluebirds - Newport City Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Trethomas Bluebirds (2.26) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Trethomas Bluebirds (2.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Trethomas Bluebirds (1.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Trethomas Bluebirds (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
77', 1 - 0, Hood J. ⚽,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 13 and 7).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Newport City may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Newport City has had a series of home games.

Newport City will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Trethomas Bluebirds won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 1.7:1).

Including home match between the teams, Trethomas Bluebirds won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Trethomas Bluebirds	9	2	4	3	17:17	0	10
12	Newport City	7	2	2	3	10:6	4	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Trethomas Bluebirds
Welsh Cymru South
06.03.26	Trethomas Bluebirds - Carmarthen Town	4:5 ✺
01.03.26	Cambrian United - Trethomas Bluebirds	4:2 ✺
20.02.26	Afan Lido - Trethomas Bluebirds	1:0 ✺
13.02.26	Ammanford - Trethomas Bluebirds	0:0 ✺
30.01.26	Trethomas Bluebirds - Cwmbran Celtic	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LLLTW
- Newport City FC
Welsh Cymru South
06.03.26	Newport City - Baglan Dragons	1:2 ✺
01.03.26	Newport City - Carmarthen Town	4:4 ✺
20.02.26	Newport City - Llantwit Major	2:1 ✺
13.02.26	Afan Lido - Newport City	0:1 ✺
31.01.26	Newport City - Aberystwyth Town	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
10.10.25	Newport City - Trethomas Bluebirds	1:1
03.01.25	Newport City - Trethomas Bluebirds	1:2
01.11.24	Trethomas Bluebirds - Newport City	2:1

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