Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 16

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Arena Fonte Nova (Salvador)

Referee: Mendes F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol
Mexico	Azteca Deportes, Disney+
Paraguay	GEN
Portugal	Canal 11
Usa	Fanatiz


	Bahia		Grêmio

	1	X	2
	1.62	4	5	Watch
	1.82	3.7	4.33
	1.68	3.7	4.95	Watch
	1.7	4.05	5.1
	1.7	3.93	4.93	Watch
	1.67	3.6	4.5
	1.7	3.95	4.99	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↓ (1.8)	3.85 ↑ (3.46)	4.83 ↑ (4.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bahia
55.8%

Draw
24.6%

Grêmio
19.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.8%

26.9%

21.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56%

29.1%

19.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	11.1%	0%

Bahia - Grêmio Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Bahia will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Leo Vieira (G) 2. Gilberto 33. David Duarte 4. Kanu 46. Luciano Juba 5. Nicolas Acevedo 14. Erick 7. Ademir 10. Everton Ribeiro (C) 16. Erick Pulga 12. Willian Jose	1. Weverton (G) 43. Luis Eduardo 3. Wagner Leonardo 44. Viery 14. Marcos Rocha (C) 19. Noriega E. 33. Perez L. 54. Pedro Gabriel 99. Enamorado J. 95. Carlos Vinicius 10. Willian
Substitutes
90. Caio Suassuna 27. Everaldo 3. Gabriel Xavier 31. Gomez R. 25. Iago Borduchi 6. Jean Lucas 34. Joao Paulo (G) 43. Luiz Gustavo 44. Marcos Victor 15. Michel Araujo 11. Rodrigo 23. Sanabria M.	9. Amuzu F. 77. Andre Henrique 50. Bernardo Zortea 22. Braithwaite M. 38. Caio Paulista 37. Gabriel Mec 11. Monsalve M. 32. Ramon V. 21. Tete 24. Thiago Beltrame (G) 39. Tiago 4. Walter Kannemann
Coaches
Mucke R.	Castro L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
36', Enamorado J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Willian ↓, Gabriel Mec ↑,
57', Kanu 🟨,
60', Marcos Rocha ↓, Ramon V. ↑,
60', Enamorado J. ↓, Amuzu F. ↑,
60', Carlos Vinicius ↓, Braithwaite M. ↑,
60', Luciano Juba ↓, Iago Borduchi ↑,
60', Ademir ↓, Sanabria M. ↑,
62', 0 - 1, Viery ⚽, Pedro Gabriel (A),
65', Pedro Gabriel 🟨,
67', Everton Ribeiro ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
67', Willian Jose ↓, Everaldo ↑,
72', 1 - 1, Sanabria M. ⚽, Rodrigo (A),
74', Nicolas Acevedo 🟨,
78', Noriega E. ↓, Bernardo Zortea ↑,
79', Erick Pulga 🟨,
80', Ramon V. 🟨,
84', Gilberto ↓, Caio Suassuna ↑,
89', Andre Henrique 🟨,
90+1', Gabriel Mec 🟨,
90+1', Rodrigo 🟨,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 3.

Bahia has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Grêmio's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Bahia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Grêmio has had a series of away games.

In this match, Bahia is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Bahia: Caio Alexandre (Inactive) Ramos S. (Yellow Cards) Ronaldo Strada (Shoulder Injury) Ruan Pablo (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Grêmio: Arthur Melo (Thigh Injury) Marlon (Broken ankle) Nardoni J. (Injury) Pavon C. (Yellow Cards) Villasanti M. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Bahia: Willian Jose (Injury)

There are questionable in Grêmio: Gustavo Martins (Injury) Joao Pedro (Muscle Injury) Pedro Gabriel (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 20:21. (average 1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Bahia won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:9. (average 1.1:0.9).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Bahia: 0.33%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Bahia	29	12	10	7	43:36	7	46
18	Gremio	29	7	9	13	31:39	-8	30

Last Results with these Odds

Bahia - the odds 1.8 are the expected chance of winning is 51.77%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Grêmio - the odds 4.36 are the expected chance of winning is 21.34%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Bahia
Copa do Brasil
13.05.26	Remo - Bahia	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
09.05.26	Bahia - Cruzeiro	1:2 ✺
03.05.26	São Paulo - Bahia	2:2 ✺
25.04.26	Bahia - Santos	2:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
22.04.26	Bahia - Remo	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLTTL
- Grêmio RS
Copa do Brasil
14.05.26	Confiança - Grêmio	0:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.26	Grêmio - Flamengo	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
05.05.26	Deportivo Riestra - Grêmio	0:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
02.05.26	Athletico Paranaense - Grêmio	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
29.04.26	Palestino - Grêmio	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
19.10.25	Bahia - Grêmio	4:0
25.05.25	Grêmio - Bahia	1:0
17.08.24	Grêmio - Bahia	0:2
27.04.24	Bahia - Grêmio	1:0
04.11.23	Grêmio - Bahia	1:0
Copa do Brasil
12.07.23	Grêmio - Bahia	2:1 penalties
04.07.23	Bahia - Grêmio	1:1

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