Match Info

Date: 22 October 2022, Saturday

Location: Arena Fonte Nova (Salvador)

Referee: da Silva Junior J. M. (Bra)


	Bahia		Vila Nova

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.52	3.75	6
	1.49	3.7	7
	1.51	3.7	6.2
	1.55	3.83	7.68
	1.53	3.8	6.5	Watch
	1.52	3.75	6.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↓ (1.54)	3.76 ↑ (3.51)	6.63 ↑ (6.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bahia
61.2%

Draw
24.8%

Vila Nova
14%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.4%

26.1%

14.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.5%

27%

14.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Vila Nova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vila Nova than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	12.5%	20.8%

Bahia - Vila Nova Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Bahia will win (votes: 16 - 66.7%). Vila Nova will win (votes: 5 - 20.8%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bahia: 47.8% – 85.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Watch a battle-game between leader and a mid-table team (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A and 13).

Recent matches Bahia is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Vila Nova is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Vila Nova could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Bahia is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Bahia won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Bahia won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Bahia
Brazilian Serie B
16.10.22	Grêmio - Bahia	1:1 ✺
08.10.22	Bahia - Brusque	1:0 ✺
04.10.22	Grêmio Novorizontino - Bahia	1:1 ✺
30.09.22	Chapecoense - Bahia	3:1 ✺
24.09.22	Bahia - Operário Ferroviario	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 TWTLT
- Vila Nova FC
Brazilian Serie B
14.10.22	Vila Nova - Cruzeiro	1:0 ✺
08.10.22	Ponte Preta - Vila Nova	1:1 ✺
04.10.22	Vila Nova - Criciúma	1:0 ✺
30.09.22	Operário Ferroviario - Vila Nova	1:1 ✺
22.09.22	Vila Nova - CRB Maceio	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 WTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
08.07.22	Vila Nova - Bahia	1:1
Copa do Brasil
09.06.21	Bahia - Vila Nova	1:0
01.06.21	Vila Nova - Bahia	0:1
Brazilian Serie B
04.11.16	Vila Nova - Bahia	0:1
05.07.16	Bahia - Vila Nova	0:1

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