Match Info

WALES: Cymru Premier - Round 8

Date: 20 September 2024, Friday

Location: Maes Tegid (Bala)

Referee: Wright R. (Wal)


	Bala Town		Newtown

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.1	3.9
	1.8	3.4	4.33
	1.92	3.27	4.13
	1.99	3.29	3.87	Watch
	1.83	3.4	3.9
	1.88	3.34	4.06
	1.83	3.3	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↓ (1.99)	3.3 ↓ (3.4)	4.07 ↑ (3.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bala Town
49.4%

Draw
28%

Newtown
22.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.6%

27.3%

26.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

28.5%

25%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bala Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Newtown has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bala Town than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newtown than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Bala Town - Newtown Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Torrance J. (G) 12. Abadaki O. 8. Burke N. 2. Downes A. 6. Edwards A. 24. Harrison K. 19. Lloyd K. 10. Malkin J. 99. Mehasseb H. 4. Peate N. (C) 23. White R.	1. Swindell A. (G) 8. Evans R. 20. Harries J. 24. Hughes G. 11. Ismail Z. 10. Lock J. 9. Oswell J. 3. Roberts C. 27. Smith D. 6. Sutton S. 14. Williams A.
Substitutes
28. Arsan N. 77. Beck L. 16. Hughes T. 21. Jones R. 3. Kargbo U. 11. Malone D. 22. Norton C.	17. Boakye H. 31. Guest B. 33. Hollinshead T. 26. Pryce R. 23. Sharp O. 22. Smith C. 13. Ussher S. (G)
Coaches
Caton C.	Ruscoe S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
10', 0 - 1, Williams A. ⚽,
19', 0 - 2, Oswell J. ⚽,
41', Mehasseb H. ↓, Norton C. ↑,
45+3', 1 - 2, Edwards A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
54', Hughes G. 🟨,
69', Lloyd K. 🟨,
72', Ismail Z. ↓, Sharp O. ↑,
72', Roberts C. 🟨,
72', Peate N. 🟨,
77', Burke N. ↓, Malone D. ↑,
80', 2 - 2, Peate N. ⚽,
81', Oswell J. 🟨,
83', Williams A. ↓, Boakye H. ↑,
85', Abadaki O. 🟨,
90+2', Edwards A. 🟨,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play in the exciting match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier (Championship Group: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier (Championship Group: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Bala Town won 2.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Newtown could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Bala Town have a series of home games.

In this match Bala Town is a favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Bala Town won 13 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 41-21.

Including matches at home between the teams Bala Town won 7 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 21-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bala Town
Welsh League Cup
17.09.24	Bala Town - Holywell Town	2:0 ✺
Welsh Cymru Premier
13.09.24	Bala Town - Aberystwyth Town	3:0 ✺
07.09.24	Bala Town - Cardiff Metropolitan	0:1 ✺
31.08.24	Bala Town - Pen-y-Bont	1:2 ✺
26.08.24	Caernarfon Town - Bala Town	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WWLLT
- Newtown AFC
Welsh Cymru Premier
13.09.24	Newtown - Cardiff Metropolitan	2:1 ✺
07.09.24	Newtown - Briton Ferry Llansawel	1:0 ✺
30.08.24	Haverfordwest County - Newtown	3:0 ✺
26.08.24	Barry Town United - Newtown	1:2 ✺
23.08.24	Newtown - Caernarfon Town	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
05.04.24	Bala Town - Newtown	1:1
24.02.24	Newtown - Bala Town	1:5
30.12.23	Bala Town - Newtown	2:1
30.09.23	Newtown - Bala Town	1:0
05.05.23	Bala Town - Newtown	2:4
07.04.23	Bala Town - Newtown	1:2
25.02.23	Newtown - Bala Town	3:2

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